Philadelphia Flyers vs Washington Capitals Prediction: Best Bet for Wednesday

Philadelphia scores 1.85 goals per game, the lowest output in the league, and goes on the road for the second night in a row with the two wingers who share the hard shifts with its best young scorer both on injured reserve. Washington is rested and 5-2-0 at home, and Wednesday night tests whether a team that cannot score can keep one more game close on tired legs.

The Matchup

Washington's season looks ordinary in the standings and much better in its own building. The Capitals are 6-4-0, and five of the six wins have come at Capital One Arena, where they are 5-2-0. They score 3.40 goals per game, and the scoring is spread in a way that is hard to match against.

Alex Tuch leads Washington with 7 goals and 9 points, Dylan Strome has 6 assists, and Jordan Kyrou has 8 points, so no single line has to win its matchup for the offense to work. Three lines can each produce the goal that breaks a game open.

Philadelphia does not have that margin for error. The Flyers are 3-7-3 and score 1.85 goals per game, the lowest output in the league, and the shape of the lineup explains the number. Matvei Michkov has 8 of Philadelphia's 24 goals, a third of the team's scoring from one winger, and Trevor Zegras leads the Flyers with 7 assists. After Michkov, the production thins out fast, and the absences make it thinner.

Travis Konecny is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury and Owen Tippett is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, so the two wingers who would normally draw defensive attention away from Michkov are both out. Rasmus Ristolainen is on injured reserve with a hand injury, which thins a blue line that already allows 3.15 goals per game.

The goaltending has kept Philadelphia in games its scoring should have lost. Joseph Woll is at a 2.99 goals-against average and a .904 save percentage, and Dan Vladar is at 3.15 and .900, and that competence is why so many Flyers games end 2-1 or 3-2 either way.

Washington's crease is the one unsettled spot on the home side. Logan Thompson is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury after starting seven of Washington's ten games at 2.90 and .901, and Charlie Lindgren is next at 2.98 and .886, so the Capitals may be starting their second choice against a team that struggles to score twice.

Key Factors

Rest is the first factor, and it is not close. Philadelphia plays Columbus at home on Tuesday night and then goes to Washington on Wednesday, a second game in two nights, while Washington did not play Tuesday and has been home waiting. A tired team that scores 1.85 goals per game has no late push to spend, and the Flyers' 1-4-1 road record says the push rarely arrives away from home in the first place.

Special teams will not rescue Philadelphia either. The Flyers convert 16.3 percent of their power plays and Washington converts 17.9 percent, while the penalty kills are nearly even, 82.6 percent for Philadelphia and 81.2 percent for Washington. Nothing there gives the weaker team a shortcut, so this game gets decided at even strength, where Washington's three-line scoring meets a Philadelphia top six missing two of its best wingers.

The honest case against a margin is Philadelphia's habit of losing close. Three of the Flyers' last five games were decided by one goal, and a goaltender playing at .904 can keep a fourth game there almost by himself.

If Woll or Vladar steals the first period and Michkov scores on one of his few clean looks, Washington can win this game and still leave the second goal unclaimed. The pick asks Washington's depth to do at home what it has done there all month, against the thinnest lineup it will face in its own building.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.