Puebla vs Querétaro Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Liga MX

Querétaro return to Estadio Corregidora on a run of four straight defeats that has dragged them to eleventh in the Apertura, and Puebla arrive winless in five and three places lower, both sides running out of road. Ali Avila, who has scored 6 goals this season, leads a home attack that has kept scoring in Querétaro while the defense behind it has come apart.

The Matchup

Querétaro's home games have been the survivable half of a season that is sliding away. Across the five home matches pulled since August they have scored 1.6 goals a game at Estadio Corregidora, with Ali Avila leading the side on 6 goals, Santiago Homenchenko adding 5 and Mateo Coronel 4 goals on a team-high 45 shots. The problem is the other end of the same ground, where they have also conceded 1.6 a game, and the last month has turned that leak into a flood: four straight defeats, to Santos, San Luis, Cruz Azul and Juárez, with 13 goals conceded across the last five matches.

Puebla travel with a thinner attack and a steadier floor. They have scored 17 goals in 15 matches all season, Eduardo Mustre's 3 the team high, and their most reliable scoring route lately has been Facundo Almada, a defender with 2 goals who also anchors the back line.

On the road they have scored a little over a goal a game while conceding 1.5, and their last five have brought no wins, draws with León and Tijuana followed by defeats against Monterrey, Atlas and Pumas. The Atlas game, a 4-3 defeat on the road, at least showed this side can score when a game opens up.

Neither club has named its side yet. Querétaro are expected to keep the 4-2-3-1 used at Juárez on October 31, Guillermo Allison, who has made 48 saves this season, in goal behind Lucas Abascia and Diego Reyes, with Mateo Coronel and Enzo Giménez in midfield and Avila and Iker Benito, who has 3 assists, further forward. Puebla are expected to keep the 4-2-3-1 that faced Pumas, Ricardo Gutiérrez, also on 48 saves, in goal, Almada and Juan Pablo Vargas, who has 3 assists, in the back line, and Alejandro Organista in midfield.

Key Factors

The shape of this game suits a visiting side that only has to stay in it. Querétaro have to chase the win at home, and chasing is what has undone them for a month, because a defense conceding at this rate cannot hold a game while the attack presses. Puebla do not need to win the night. A draw pays this ticket in full, and even a one-goal defeat returns half the stake and loses only the other half, so Puebla can play the patient game their squad is built for and let Querétaro's nerves do the work.

The honest counterpoint is Querétaro's home scoring. Avila and Homenchenko have kept producing in this stadium, Puebla's own away defense has conceded in bunches when pressed, 4 at Atlas in their last road game, and a home side that scores twice early turns this into exactly the open game Puebla's thin attack cannot chase.

What beats this pick is a Querétaro performance from September rather than October, two goals clear and comfortable. The last month of evidence points the other way, toward a home side that gives every visitor a way back into the game.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.