Rice vs North Texas Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10

North Texas scores 43.8 points a game and throws for 349 yards a night. Rice throws for 83. Neither of those is a typo. The Mean Green's defense leaks enough to keep the total interesting, but this is the widest talent gap on the Saturday slate, and it lives in Denton.

The Matchup

Tayven Jackson is having the kind of season that ends arguments. North Texas's quarterback has thrown for 2,577 yards with 22 touchdowns, Jahiem White has rushed for 1,054 yards, and Justin Stevenson has 781 receiving yards for an offense scoring 43.8 points per game and throwing for 348.9 a night. The Mean Green's last three games produced 48, 49 and 50 points.

Their defense, allowing 31.9 per game, is the only reason anyone hesitates. Rice's answer is to never let the game start. The Owls run for 271.5 yards per game and throw for just 83.4, with Jacurri Brown serving as the entire offense: 478 passing yards and a team-leading 669 rushing yards, with Jordan Clark's 257 receiving yards leading a barely-used receiving corps.

Rice scores 21.0 points per game, allows 31.8, and lost a 51-49 game to Florida Atlantic in which its offense finally exploded. That game is the Owls' whole case: this defense can be scored on, and Rice's ground game is genuinely good.

Key Factors

The handicap is a race between North Texas's scoring rate and Rice's clock. Every eight-minute Owls drive is a drive Jackson never gets, and 16.5 points is a mountain if the Mean Green only possess the ball nine times. That is the honest case for the underdog, and Rice's 49-point game against FAU proves the Owls can punish this specific defense.

But North Texas has faced run-heavy teams all season in the American and kept scoring anyway, because its offense does not need many plays to score: Jackson to Stevenson is a two-play drive waiting to happen. Rice also cannot chase. If North Texas scores on its first three possessions, Brown throwing from behind is a surrender, and the Owls' defense has to defend 60 minutes against the best passing game in the conference. At home, with this offense, the favorite pulls away late.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.