San Jose Sharks vs Minnesota Wild Prediction: Best Bet for Friday

Minnesota allows 2.24 goals per game, the stingiest mark in this game by more than a goal, and San Jose arrives on a three-game losing streak with a defense giving up 3.53 a night. The Wild are missing half their blue line, though, and that is the one crack a young Sharks team has to find at Grand Casino Arena.

The Matchup

Minnesota is 11-3-3, scoring 3.29 goals per game and allowing 2.24, a +1.06 differential built on the defensive end. Kirill Kaprizov leads the Wild with 15 goals and 26 points, and Quinn Hughes has 17 assists and 22 points from the blue line. Minnesota is 4-0-1 at home, has gone 7-1-2 over its last ten, and is 10-0-2 when it scores three or more goals, which is most nights.

San Jose is 7-9-1, scoring 2.53 per game and allowing 3.53 for a -1.00 differential. Macklin Celebrini leads the Sharks in everything, with 6 goals, 11 assists, and 17 points, and when Celebrini is quiet the Sharks have very little behind him. San Jose has lost three straight and gone 3-6-1 over its last ten, and a 4-4-1 road record is the one respectable line on its page.

Minnesota's injury report is the honest complication. The Wild are missing two of their best defensemen and their other goaltender, which is a real cost, and it is priced into a moneyline that would be shorter at full strength.

Key Factors

The margin case starts with the two defensive numbers, because they point at a multi-goal game rather than a coin flip. San Jose allows 3.53 goals per game, Minnesota scores 3.29, and when the Sharks fall behind they have to chase with a team that scores 2.53 a night against a defense allowing 2.24. Chasing Minnesota at home is how a 3-1 game becomes 4-1 or 5-2 late, with an empty net waiting at the end of it. That chase, not just the win, is what a two-goal margin needs.

The crease widens it further. Jesper Wallstedt has a 2.06 goals-against average and a .920 save percentage for Minnesota, with a 10-2 record in his starts, and he carries the net alone with Filip Gustavsson out with a hip injury. San Jose splits between Yaroslav Askarov at 3.29 and .888 and Alex Nedeljkovic at 3.09 and .899.

Minnesota is also without Jared Spurgeon, who is out with a lower body injury, and Brock Faber, who is out with a skull injury, plus Nick Foligno and Marcus Foligno. San Jose lists Igor Chernyshov, Alexander Wennberg, Kyle Keyser, and Quentin Musty all out with upper body injuries.

Special teams lean Minnesota as well, with a power play converting 25.4 percent against a San Jose kill of 81.0 percent, while the Sharks convert 23.0 percent against a Wild kill of 80.4 percent. The underdog case is Celebrini, the Wild's missing defensemen, and a Sharks team that has been competitive on the road. It fails because San Jose still has to score three on Wallstedt to keep this inside one goal, and the Sharks have not scored their way out of this building's kind of game all season.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.