SMU vs Syracuse Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
SMU arrives in the JMA Wireless Dome at 6-1 with one of the most productive passing attacks Syracuse will see all season, and the Orange come in at 3-4 off a wild win at North Carolina. The home team's best receiver is the reason this spread gets tested.
The Matchup
Kevin Jennings makes SMU the favorite for a clear reason. Jennings has thrown for 2,062 yards with 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and he went 16 of 23 for 223 yards and 3 touchdowns in the most recent game. Kendrick Raphael added 22 carries for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns in that game, and Raphael is up to 641 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns this season.
SMU averages 313.1 passing yards per game at 9.4 yards per attempt, so the Mustangs score 36.4 points per game without needing anything fluky. Syracuse answers with a different kind of explosiveness. Steve Angeli went 20 of 34 for 256 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions last time out, and Umari Hatcher caught 4 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown, with a long of 76.
Hatcher has 54 catches for 887 yards and 8 touchdowns this season, production that punishes any defense brave enough to leave him in single coverage. Ahmad Miller carried 30 times for 125 yards and a touchdown in that same game, giving Syracuse enough balance to stop SMU from simply teeing off on Angeli.
Key Factors
Turnovers decide whether Syracuse hangs around or SMU walks away with this. Syracuse has 10 giveaways this season, the Orange quarterback room has thrown 9 interceptions in the team summary, and SMU has 11 takeaways waiting for exactly those mistakes. Syracuse cannot hand Jennings extra possessions at home and expect the Dome crowd to matter in the fourth quarter. The home side does have a real path, though.
Syracuse has taken the ball away plenty itself, SMU does give it back, and the Orange secondary will get its chances if Jennings forces throws downfield chasing a knockout. The counterpoint is SMU's week-to-week efficiency. The Mustangs complete 73.3 percent of their passes as a team, and Raphael ran at 4.7 yards per carry in the most recent game, so SMU stays ahead of the chains and makes Syracuse defend every blade of the field.
If SMU leads big at halftime, Syracuse throwing to catch up plays straight into that pressure. If the margin stays at one score into the second half, Hatcher's ability to flip the field in a single snap changes the math against a defense allowing 21.1 points per game.
SMU is the better team, but Syracuse at home does not need to be better, just explosive enough to keep answering. Hatcher gives the Orange a way to erase a bad stretch in a hurry, and that keeps a road favorite honest inside the Dome. Take Syracuse +9.5.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 12:00 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | ESPN2 |
| VENUE | JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse |
| SPREAD | SMU -9.5 |
| TOTAL | 58.5 |
| MONEYLINE | SMU -355 |
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