Stanford vs Louisville Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Louisville scores 38.7 points per game and Stanford allows 35.5, which makes the size of this number the whole story in Louisville. Stanford just beat NC State 31-28 behind its best offensive game of the season, and the question is whether that offense can score enough to matter.
The Matchup
Stanford's offense finally looked whole against NC State, and the three names from that win all have to travel to Louisville. Davis Warren went 22 of 37 for 303 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions, pushing Warren to 1,933 yards and 11 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions for the season. Micah Ford ran 22 times for 150 yards at 6.8 yards per carry in the same game, and Ford now has 679 yards and 8 touchdowns on 136 carries.
Caden High caught 9 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown against NC State, giving Warren a reliable target who has 440 yards and 4 touchdowns this year. Louisville allows 27.4 points per game, not a shutdown number, and Stanford does not need to match Louisville score for score. Stanford needs Warren to protect the ball the way Warren has all season and Ford to keep drives alive long enough to produce three or four touchdowns.
Key Factors
Louisville's offense is explosive in a way Stanford rarely sees. The Cardinals average 10.1 yards per pass attempt and 5.9 yards per carry, with 25 rushing touchdowns and 215.0 rushing yards per game. Lincoln Kienholz threw for 310 yards on just 14 completions against Syracuse, averaging 11.9 yards per attempt, and Kienholz also ran for 2 touchdowns in that game.
Lawayne McCoy caught 5 passes for 93 yards against Syracuse and has 513 yards and 4 touchdowns this season. Stanford allows 35.5 points per game and has only 6 sacks all season, so Kienholz will have time, and that is what beats Stanford here if Louisville builds a lead early and forces Warren to throw into coverage.
The gap in this game is real. The ask is narrower than the records suggest, though, because Stanford's last two wins over Elon and NC State came with Ford running well and Warren avoiding the interception, and Louisville has not played since October 17, a 13-day layoff that can dull early timing.
Editorial pick: Stanford +22.5 at -110. Warren has thrown 11 touchdowns against 2 interceptions and Ford just ran for 150 yards, so Stanford has the ball control to score enough that Louisville must keep scoring deep into the second half to clear this number. Louisville covers if Kienholz turns 10.1 yards per attempt into early explosive touchdowns and Stanford falls behind by three scores before halftime. Take Stanford +22.5.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 3:15 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | ACC Network |
| VENUE | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville |
| SPREAD | Louisville -22.5 |
| TOTAL | 61.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Louisville -2,100 |
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