Everton vs Brentford Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Premier League

Everton travel to Brentford on Monday afternoon sitting sixth in the Premier League on 16 points, two points above a Brentford side in eighth whose home form at the Gtech Community Stadium has carried their season.

The Matchup

Everton make the trip to Brentford on Monday afternoon for a meeting of two sides separated by two points in the Premier League table. Everton sit sixth on 16 points, Brentford eighth on 14, and the Monday afternoon slot at the Gtech Community Stadium gives Brentford the chance to climb above the visitors with a win.

The puzzle of this fixture is that Brentford's season splits cleanly in two. They are a force at home and a frustration away from it, and Everton have built their own points total on being hard to beat wherever they go.

Brentford's home numbers are the strongest thing either club owns. Five matches at the Gtech Community Stadium have brought three wins, a draw and one defeat, with 10 goals scored and only 3 conceded. Tottenham Hotspur were beaten 3-0 there in August, Chelsea were beaten 3-0 in September, and Nottingham Forest lost 2-0 on Halloween weekend, with Liverpool the only visiting side to win at the ground.

Kevin Schade leads the scoring with 3 goals and has taken 19 shots, Igor Thiago has 2 goals and 2 assists with a team-high 21 shots, and Keane Lewis-Potter has added 2 goals from the left. Caoimhín Kelleher has made 31 saves behind a back line that rarely gives a game away at home.

Everton's road record is built on patience rather than threat. They have won once in five away matches, drawn three and lost only at Arsenal, but they have scored just 4 goals in those five games. Thierno Barry carries the attack almost alone.

Barry has 6 goals this season, half of Everton's total of 12, and has taken a team-high 36 shots, while Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has 3 goals and 26 shots behind him. When Barry is marked out of a game, Everton's threat thins quickly, and their last two away scoring returns show it. They drew a blank at Tottenham Hotspur and scored twice at Hull City in a game they still did not win.

Neither club has named its side yet. Brentford are expected to stay close to the team that played at Brighton & Hove Albion, with Caoimhín Kelleher in goal behind Kristoffer Ajer and Sepp van den Berg, and Kevin Schade and Keane Lewis-Potter expected to start in the attacking places.

Igor Thiago cannot be one of them: he was sent off at Brighton on November 8 for violent conduct, Brentford lost their appeal on November 10, and his three-match suspension starts with this game. Everton are expected to keep the side that beat Coventry City, with Jordan Pickford in goal, James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite at the back, and Thierno Barry expected to start up front with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall behind him.

Key Factors

The tension in this game is whether Everton's away patience survives a ground where better attacks than theirs have been shut out. Brentford have kept three clean sheets in five home matches and conceded less than a goal a game at the Gtech, while Everton's away scoring rate sits below a goal a game. Everton can sit in, protect Barry's service and hope the game opens up late, but every minute they spend defending their own box is a minute Brentford's wide players spend running at a back line that has already conceded twice at Hull City and twice at home to Chelsea in recent weeks.

The honest counterpoint is that Everton arrive in their best shape of the season. They have won two straight, beating Coventry City at home and winning at Newcastle United without conceding, and Barry is the finisher everything runs through when the service reaches him. Everton have also lost only once on the road all season.

A draw is a real danger to this pick, because Brentford have drawn five of their ten matches and Everton four of theirs, and an Everton side that levels late or simply refuses to lose beats the ticket as surely as a win would. What beats this pick is Barry getting an early chance and Everton settling into the low block that has served them so well away from home.

Rest should not decide it. Brentford last played on November 8 and Everton on November 6, so both clubs come through the international break fresh, and the edge here is the venue rather than the calendar.

Brentford's one home defeat came against Liverpool, and their two home wins over London rivals were built on starting fast and defending a lead with numbers. If Brentford score first, Everton have to chase a game their away attack is not built to chase, and that is the shape this fixture has pointed toward all season.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.