Texas State vs Boise State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Boise State is ranked No. 20 and protects Albertsons Stadium as well as anyone, but Texas State arrives with a ground game that can match the Broncos stride for stride and shorten a Saturday night in a hurry.
The Matchup
Texas State can run the ball well enough to keep this game close on the blue turf. The Bobcats average 272.0 rushing yards per game at 5.8 yards per carry, numbers that sit right beside Boise State's 237.9 rushing yards at 5.6 per carry, and Torrance Burgess Jr. has run for 889 yards this season as the steady center of that attack.
A visiting offense that converts 53.9 percent of its third downs and scores 37.1 points per game does not have to steal possessions. Texas State earns them by staying ahead of the chains and keeping Dylan Riley on the sideline. Riley is Boise State's engine, with 963 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, and he ran for 128 yards at 9.8 yards per carry with 2 touchdowns in the 31-10 win at Washington State.
Texas State allows 30.0 points per game, so Riley will get his yards and Boise State will have its moments. The tension is volume. Brad Jackson has thrown 14 touchdowns for Texas State and Chris Dawn Jr. caught 7 passes in the win over Utah State, giving Texas State just enough passing balance to stop Boise State from loading the box against Burgess. When both teams run this well, possessions shrink, and a double-digit spread gets harder to build.
Key Factors
Boise State's defense and ball security are the strongest arguments against Texas State. The Broncos allow 20.6 points per game and have given the ball away only 3 times all season, a clean operation that rarely hands a visitor cheap points. Maddux Madsen played a clean game at Washington State, throwing for 149 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, while Rasean Jones caught 5 passes for 69 yards in that win, enough passing balance to keep Texas State honest.
If Boise State's defense forces Texas State into long fields and Madsen keeps avoiding mistakes, the superior defense eventually stretches the margin, and that is how this pick loses. Texas State's counter is a floor that travels. Jackson threw for only 167 yards at 4.5 yards per attempt against Utah State, yet Texas State won 20-17 on the ground, proof the Bobcats do not need a passing explosion to stay competitive.
That steadiness matters at Boise, where the steady Burgess-led drives that produced 66 points against Colorado State two games ago can keep the Broncos working all night. Both teams had 6 days of rest, so the game settles where the rushing battle settles, and Texas State's version is every bit as productive as the home team's.
On the blue turf, possessions matter more than usual when both teams want to run it and lean on people. Texas State can do that as well as the home team, which keeps the Broncos from ever breathing easily in a game they should win. Take Texas State +11.5 at -110.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 10:00 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | The CW |
| VENUE | Albertsons Stadium, Boise |
| SPREAD | Boise State -11.5 |
| TOTAL | 63.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Boise State -470 |
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Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.