Utah Mammoth vs Philadelphia Flyers Prediction: Best Bet for Sunday

Philadelphia scores 1.93 goals per game, the lowest mark in the league, and Sunday it hosts a Utah team that converts on 34.0 percent of its power plays. The Flyers have had three days to fix an offense whose third-leading scorer has six points, and that cliff behind their best two players is the whole game.

The Matchup

Utah is 9-5-0 with a plus-0.36 differential, scoring 3.64 goals per game, and the Mammoth spread their scoring across the lineup in a way Philadelphia cannot match. Clayton Keller has 16 points, Mikhail Sergachev has 16 points with 12 assists from the blue line, Logan Cooley has 7 goals and Nick Schmaltz has 14 points. Philadelphia is 3-8-4 at minus-1.40, scoring 1.93 goals per game and allowing 3.33, and its scoring table explains the record.

Trevor Zegras leads the Flyers with 13 points, Matvei Michkov has 9 goals and 11 points, and the next Flyer, Porter Martone, has 6 points. Behind two players there is almost nothing. The absences make it worse. Travis Konecny is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, Owen Tippett is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury and Rasmus Ristolainen is on injured reserve as well, so Philadelphia is missing two of its best wingers and a top-four defenseman at once.

Utah is without John Marino, who is out with an upper-body injury, a loss its deeper blue line absorbs more easily. Philadelphia has also lost three straight and has not played since Wednesday, while Utah won in overtime at Pittsburgh on Thursday.

Key Factors

Special teams look like a Utah rout and are closer than they appear, which is exactly why the even-strength game matters. Utah's power play converts a league-best 34.0 percent, but Philadelphia kills 82.0 percent of its penalties, a genuine strength. Utah's own penalty kill, at 67.4 percent, is a real leak, except Philadelphia's power play converts just 16.3 percent and has spent a month failing to punish anyone's mistakes. At even strength there is no such balance.

Utah fires 30.5 shots per game and wins 54.9 percent of its faceoffs, while Philadelphia generates just 23.5 shots and allows 30.3, so the Flyers start most shifts without the puck and end them defending. Goaltending is close to even, with Joseph Woll at 3.13 goals against and a .899 save percentage and Dan Vladar at 3.26 and .888 for Philadelphia against Karel Vejmelka at 3.13 and .881 for Utah, which pushes the game back onto the skaters, where Utah's edge is widest.

The honest counterpoint is rest and Michkov. Philadelphia is the rested home team, three days off can reset a slumping club, and Michkov is talented enough to win a period by himself. A rested Flyers team that scores first can drag this into the low game it needs. Utah's case is that Philadelphia has needed that kind of game all season and has rarely gotten it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.