Ottawa Senators vs Anaheim Ducks Prediction: Best Bet for Sunday
Ottawa's 9-5-1 start has been built behind Linus Ullmark playing some of the best goaltending in the league, and Sunday in Anaheim he is not available. The Senators still bring the better top line on the second night of a back-to-back, against a Ducks team that allows 3.85 goals per game and is 1-4-1 in its own building.
The Matchup
Ottawa is 9-5-1 with a plus-0.13 differential, scoring 3.13 goals per game and allowing 3.00, and Tim Stutzle leads the Senators with 9 goals, 12 assists and 21 points, with Drake Batherson at 9 goals and 17 points behind him. The Senators won 5-1 at San Jose on Saturday, so Sunday is the second night of a back-to-back with a trip down the California coast in between.
The complication is who is missing. Linus Ullmark is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, and he has been superb, with a 1.33 goals-against average and a .945 save percentage in eight starts. Andre Burakovsky and Warren Foegele are also on injured reserve, and William Eklund is on injured reserve with an ankle injury, so Ottawa's wings are thin behind its top line.
Anaheim is 5-7-1 at minus-0.54, scoring 3.31 per game and allowing 3.85, the leakiest defense on Sunday's slate. Leo Carlsson leads the Ducks with 18 points and 14 assists and Beckett Sennecke has 8 goals, real young talent, but Troy Terry is on injured reserve with a hip injury, and Anaheim is 1-4-1 at home and has lost two straight, including a 7-6 home loss to Buffalo on Friday night.
Key Factors
Goaltending is a problem at both ends, and Ottawa's problem is bigger. Without Ullmark, the Senators turn to Samuel Ersson, at 3.78 goals against and a .866 save percentage, or Jonas Johansson at 4.04 and .861, a steep fall from the best numbers on Sunday's slate to some of the worst. Anaheim counters with Lukas Dostal at 3.56 and .872 and Ville Husso at 4.12 and .857, so neither team can trust its crease, and the game tilts toward the skaters Ottawa still has.
Special teams give Anaheim its clearest path. The Ducks convert 28.6 percent on the power play against an Ottawa kill at 78.2 percent, while Ottawa's own power play, at 12.9 percent, is too weak to punish an Anaheim kill at 75.0, so a penalty-filled game helps the home team. Ottawa's answers are possession and the top line.
The Senators win 52.3 percent of their faceoffs to Anaheim's 47.3, and Stutzle and Batherson are producing at a level no Duck except Carlsson matches. The honest counterpoint is the schedule. Ottawa played Saturday night in San Jose, its backup goaltender is a real downgrade, and Anaheim's power play against tired legs is how a home underdog steals this. If the Ducks draw penalties early, the Senators' night gets long quickly.
Ottawa is the better team even without Ullmark, its top line is producing, and Anaheim's defense gives back whatever its power play creates. The back-to-back is the risk here, not the matchup. Take the Ottawa Senators moneyline at -118.
Game Information
| Date | Sunday (11/1) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 7:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | NHL |
| Venue | Honda Center |
| Total | 6.5 |
| Moneyline | Ottawa Senators -118 |
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