Utah State vs Texas State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

Texas State averages 562.3 yards and 40.0 points per game with Torrance Burgess Jr. at 838 rushing yards, while Utah State scores 14.5 points per game and has thrown 10 interceptions this season.

01The Matchup

Texas State owns the most explosive offense in this group, averaging 562.3 yards and 40.0 points per game at 3-3. The Bobcats run for 303.5 yards per game at 6.1 yards per carry with 16 rushing touchdowns, and they throw for 258.8 yards per game at 9.3 yards per attempt.

Brad Jackson has gone 106 of 157 for 1,439 yards with 14 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, Torrance Burgess Jr. has rushed 108 times for 838 yards and 5 touchdowns, and Chris Dawn Jr. leads the receivers with 348 yards and 4 touchdowns. Utah State is 2-4 and averages 310.0 yards and 14.5 points per game. Grady Brosterhous has thrown for 914 yards with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, Javen Jacobs leads the Aggies with 393 rushing yards, and Eli Wood has 36 catches for 472 yards and 5 touchdowns.

02Key Factors

Utah State has scored just 2 rushing touchdowns all season and averages 3.8 yards per carry, which makes the Aggies one-dimensional against a team built to trade scores. Brosterhous completes 52.5% of his passes, Utah State has thrown 10 interceptions as a team, and the Aggies convert 37.0% on third down against 54.8% for Texas State.

The caution on the favorite is real: Texas State sits at minus-3 in turnover margin with only 7 takeaways, while Utah State has taken the ball away 14 times and has 9 sacks to 6 for the Bobcats. Short fields are the Aggies only realistic path to keeping pace with an offense that gains 6.1 yards every time it runs the ball.

03The Pick

Two touchdowns is a big ask, and the yardage says Texas State can pay it. The Bobcats score 25.5 more points per game than Utah State, outrush the Aggies by 183.3 yards per game, and have the more efficient quarterback by a wide margin, with Jackson at 9.3 yards per attempt against 6.3 for Brosterhous.

Utah State's takeaways can steal a possession or two, but an offense averaging 14.5 points with 2 rushing touchdowns cannot answer drive after drive at UFCU Stadium. Burgess and the ground game should control the second half and stretch this past the number. Editorial pick: Texas State -13.5.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.