Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Pittsburgh allows 3.43 goals per game and may be without Evgeni Malkin, while Vegas brings a 27.3 percent power play into a building where the Penguins have been chasing games. Jack Eichel has 20 points, and the Golden Knights' top end is the best thing in this matchup.

The Matchup

Vegas is 9-5-1 at plus-0.53 per game, scoring 3.47 goals and allowing 2.93, and the Golden Knights are built to win games like this one, close and decided by the top of the lineup. Jack Eichel leads Vegas with 20 points and 13 assists and Mark Stone has 9 goals, so the first line produces in every game state. The crease is shared and ordinary, with Carter Hart at a 2.76 goals-against average and an .889 save percentage and Adin Hill at 2.84 and .891, which is why Vegas games stay interesting longer than they should.

Pittsburgh is 5-7-2 at minus-0.14, scoring 3.29 per game and allowing 3.43, and the Penguins give up goals in bunches when their defense gets stretched. Evgeni Malkin leads the team with 6 goals and Erik Karlsson has 13 assists and 16 points from the blue line, but Malkin is day to day with a lower-body injury, and Pittsburgh's offense changes shape without him.

Bryan Rust is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, which takes another finisher off the top six. Arturs Silovs has carried the crease at 2.98 and .889. Keep an eye on whether Malkin plays before placing a bet.

Vegas reports a light list by comparison. Parker Wotherspoon is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, and the rest of the Golden Knights' core is available.

Key Factors

The power-play gap is where Vegas can separate. The Golden Knights convert 27.3 percent with the man advantage, and while Pittsburgh kills a strong 85.7 percent of its penalties, Vegas moves the puck through Eichel and Stone well enough to test any kill. At the other end, Pittsburgh converts 21.1 percent against a Vegas kill of just 69.4 percent, the weakest kill in this matchup, so the Penguins' route is clear. Draw penalties, and Karlsson runs a power play that can steal the game.

That route is why this pick is a moneyline and not a margin. Vegas is the better team by differential and by top-end talent, but its penalty kill keeps underdogs alive and its goaltending has been ordinary, so a two-goal ask would be greedy.

The Penguins' case, beyond the power play, is Malkin returning and Karlsson controlling the game from the point. It gets weaker the longer Vegas plays at even strength, where the Golden Knights defend better and finish better. In a near coin flip, side with the team that wins the five-on-five minutes.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.