Dallas Stars vs Washington Capitals Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Dallas allows 2.14 goals per game behind Jake Oettinger, who has three shutouts already, and kills 93.6 percent of its penalties. Washington scores more freely, at 3.38 per game, but almost everything the Capitals do well runs into the Stars' biggest strength.

The Matchup

Dallas is 8-5-1 at plus-0.50 per game, and the Stars do it the hard way, scoring just 2.64 goals per game while allowing a league-best 2.14 on this slate. Jake Oettinger is the foundation, with a 1.63 goals-against average, a .921 save percentage and three shutouts, and a goaltender playing at that level lets Dallas play patient hockey for sixty minutes. Mikko Rantanen leads the Stars with 7 goals, 10 assists and 17 points, so the one line that has to score usually does.

Washington is 8-5-0 at plus-0.15, scoring 3.38 per game and allowing 3.23, a much looser profile. Alex Tuch leads the Capitals with 10 goals and 12 points and Dylan Strome has 9 assists, and Washington wins games by getting to three or four goals before its defense gives the lead back. Logan Thompson is at a 2.93 goals-against average and an .898 save percentage in net, solid but a clear step below what Dallas gets from Oettinger.

Both teams are missing real pieces. Matt Duchene is on injured reserve for Dallas with an abdomen injury, and Rasmus Sandin is on injured reserve for Washington after knee surgery, with Vincent Desharnais also on injured reserve after abdomen surgery. Duchene's absence thins the Stars' second line, which matters for a team that does not score much to begin with.

Key Factors

The penalty kill is Dallas's trump card. The Stars kill 93.6 percent of their penalties, a remarkable number, and Washington's power play converts just 17.6 percent, so the Capitals' man advantage is close to a dead end. Dallas converts 21.9 percent of its own power plays against a Washington kill of 77.3 percent, which hands the Stars the one special-teams edge in an otherwise tight game.

Washington's case is pace and volume. The Capitals score a full three-quarters of a goal more per game, they are at home, and Dallas's low scoring leaves no margin for one bad period from Oettinger. If Washington gets to three goals, the Stars probably cannot follow. The problem is getting there.

Teams do not reach three against Dallas often, because the Stars defend the middle, kill everything, and have the best goaltender in this matchup behind it all. Washington has to play Dallas's game and beat the Stars at it, and that has been a losing assignment for most teams this season.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.