Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Ottawa has the better record and a goaltender stopping almost everything, but the two teams are separated by almost nothing in the numbers that decide games: Washington scores 3.53 goals per game to Ottawa's 3.11, and the goal differentials sit within a whisker of each other. Tuesday is a coin flip wearing a favorite's price tag.

The Matchup

Washington is 9-6-0, scoring 3.53 goals per game and allowing 3.40, a +0.13 differential. Alex Tuch leads the Capitals with 11 goals, Dylan Strome has 11 assists, and Jordan Kyrou leads the team with 14 points. The Capitals have played only four road games all season, going 2-2-0, so the road sample says almost nothing either way. What the full season says is clear enough: Washington scores in bunches and gives chances back, and its games tend to be decided by which end of that trade shows up in the third period.

Ottawa is 11-6-1, scoring 3.11 per game and allowing 3.00 for a +0.11 differential, and the Senators have been strong at home at 6-2-0. Tim Stutzle leads Ottawa with 23 points on 9 goals and 14 assists, and he is the most dynamic player in this game. Put the two teams side by side and the gap is a mirage: Ottawa has two more wins, Washington has the better attack, and the differentials are +0.13 and +0.11. This is an even matchup that the standings make look wider than it is.

Key Factors

Linus Ullmark is Ottawa's best argument. He has a 1.33 goals-against average and a .945 save percentage in eight games for the Senators, with Samuel Ersson at 3.14 and .889 behind him. Washington's Logan Thompson is at 3.20 and .888, and Charlie Lindgren is at 3.08 and .881. If Ullmark starts and plays to those numbers, Washington's scoring edge gets taxed hard. That is the honest center of the Ottawa case, and it is a strong one.

What Ullmark cannot fix is Ottawa's special teams. The Senators convert 13.2 percent on the power play and kill 74.6 percent of their penalties, weak marks at both ends, while Washington converts 20.0 percent and kills 76.5 percent. Ottawa's path to pulling away runs through the extra man, and that path has been closed most of the season.

Washington is missing Rasmus Sandin, who is out on injured reserve after knee surgery, and Vincent Desharnais, who is out on injured reserve after abdomen surgery. Ottawa is missing Andre Burakovsky and Warren Foegele, both out on injured reserve with lower body injuries, and William Eklund, who is out on injured reserve with an ankle injury.

The favorite's case is real: Ottawa's record, the 6-2-0 home mark, Stutzle, and Ullmark. It fails at the price because nothing underneath it separates these teams. The differentials are level, Washington scores 3.53 a night to Ottawa's 3.11, and Ottawa's power play and penalty kill are both too weak to build the margin a favorite is supposed to build. Even teams should not be priced like clear ones.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.