Toronto Raptors vs Los Angeles Lakers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Toronto looked like a surprise team at 3-2, then Kawhi Leonard was ruled out and the Raptors gave up 121 points at home to Orlando. The Lakers get them next, at home, with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves both available, and with every reason to make that defensive slide the story again.

The Matchup

Toronto is 3-2, and its two games against Orlando this week tell the season's story in miniature. The Raptors score 116.8 points per game and allow 106.2, the stingiest defensive number on this slate. They beat Orlando 129-99 at home on Wednesday.

Kawhi Leonard was then ruled out with knee inflammation, with a return expected around November 23, and Toronto lost the rematch with Orlando 121-114 at home on Friday. Leonard is out for this game, and Nate Bittle is also out for the Raptors. What remains is still talented.

Scottie Barnes does a little of everything, RJ Barrett scores, Immanuel Quickley pushes pace, and Jakob Poeltl protects the rim. Toronto went 46-36 last season, so the strong start was not a fluke. It was also built with its best player on the floor.

The Lakers are 4-2, and they get this game in their own building after a humbling Friday. Los Angeles scores 118.5 points per game and allows 113.3, and it lost 112-95 at Golden State on Friday, a flat performance the Lakers will want to answer for. Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are both available, and that backcourt is the reason this matchup tilts. Walker Kessler gives Los Angeles a real rim presence against Poeltl, and the Lakers are 2-1 at home so far.

Los Angeles went 53-29 last season, and its ceiling at home, with its two creators healthy, is the highest on this slate. Adou Thiero is out for the Lakers with knee inflammation. Ziaire Williams is day-to-day with a foot listing and a return date of November 1. Keep an eye on whether Williams plays before placing a bet.

DraftKings makes Los Angeles a 4.5-point home favorite at crypto.com Arena, with the Lakers at -180 on the moneyline and a total of 227.5.

Key Factors

Leonard's absence is a defensive story before it is a scoring one. Toronto's 106.2 points allowed per game was built with the league's most disruptive perimeter defender erasing the other team's first option, and Friday offered the first evidence of life without him, with Orlando scoring 121 in Toronto's own building. Barnes is a strong defender in his own right, but asking him to guard Doncic, create on offense and carry extra minutes all at once is how a good player has a tired fourth quarter.

Doncic and Reaves are built to exploit exactly this. Both can run a pick and roll, both can score off the dribble, and together they force a defense to choose which creator gets the weaker defender on every possession. With Leonard, Toronto had an answer for one of them.

Without him, every switch is a problem, and Kessler rolling to the rim pulls Poeltl away from the help position Toronto needs him in. The Lakers should get good shots for four quarters. The only question is whether their own defense, which allows 113.3 points per game, lets Toronto's remaining scorers keep the game close enough to steal late.

That risk is why the moneyline fits this game better than the spread. Toronto can absolutely score with Los Angeles for long stretches, because Barnes, Barrett and Quickley is a real offensive core, and a 4.5-point spread can die on one late run either way. Asking the Lakers to win at home, with the two best creators in the game and the other team's best player in street clothes, is the version of this bet the evidence supports.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.