LA Clippers vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Golden State has won three straight, and none of that form walks onto the floor Sunday, because Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are both out for rest. What is left is a home favorite priced on a rotation that will not play, against a Clippers team that badly needs a game shaped exactly like this one.

The Matchup

Golden State is 3-3 and arrives on a three-game winning streak that needs an asterisk the size of the Chase Center. The Warriors score 116.7 points per game and allow 115.3, they beat the Lakers 112-95 at home on Friday, and they won 119-114 at Minnesota on Wednesday. Stephen Curry is out for this game, listed for rest with a return on November 2. Draymond Green is out for this game, also listed for rest with a return on November 2.

Kristaps Porzingis is out with an illness until December, and Moses Moody is out after knee surgery. The team that built this streak is not the team that plays Sunday. Jimmy Butler III becomes the entire offense's first option, Brandin Podziemski becomes a primary creator, and Al Horford and Gary Payton II take on bigger defensive jobs than their minutes usually ask.

The Clippers are 1-4, and their problem is at the other end of the floor. They score 105.4 points per game and allow 111.8, and they lost 127-101 at Minnesota on Friday. Darius Garland is a genuine lead guard, Rui Hachimura gives them size on the wing, and Brook Lopez still stretches a defense from the center spot. The absences are real for Los Angeles too.

Bradley Beal is out with knee inflammation, Brandon Ingram is out after Achilles surgery, and Max Strus is out with a foot problem, all with returns expected around November 8. The difference is that the Clippers have already been playing as this version of themselves. Golden State has not. The Warriors went 37-45 last season and the Clippers went 42-40, so there is no pedigree gap here once the two stars sit.

DraftKings makes Golden State a 2.5-point home favorite at Chase Center, with the Warriors at -130 on the moneyline and a total of 219.5. Gui Santos is day-to-day for Golden State with a knee listing and a return date of November 1. Keep an eye on whether Santos plays before placing a bet.

Key Factors

Curry's absence changes every Golden State possession, not just the ones he shoots. Defenses guard the Warriors 30 feet from the basket because of him, and that space is what their cutting and screening game lives in. Without him, the floor shrinks, Butler has to create against a set defense on trip after trip, and the late-clock bailout option is gone.

Green is the other half of the same problem. He organizes their defense, guards the other team's best frontcourt player, and plays center in the small lineups that usually close games. Losing both on the same night is not a rotation tweak. It is a different team.

The Clippers' counterweight is their own offense, and it is a heavy one. A team scoring 105.4 points per game, fresh off 101 at Minnesota and 87 against the Lakers last week, can lose this game all by itself if the shots do not fall.

Garland has to be the best guard on the floor, and Lopez pulling Horford away from the rim is the mechanism that opens driving lanes for him. If the Clippers settle for contested jumpers the way they did in Minnesota, a shorthanded Golden State team can still grind out a home win on effort and crowd energy.

Rest is not an excuse either way. Both teams played Friday and both had Saturday off, so this is a normal rest spot, and Golden State's decision to sit its two stars here is a choice the price has not fully caught up with. A 2.5-point home line made sense for the Warriors who won three straight. It is a hard line to defend for the Warriors who actually take the floor.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.