Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Portland is 4-1 and unbeaten on the road, scoring 120.6 points a game with a defense that has surprised everyone. Denver at home is still Denver, but the Nuggets have been outscored this season, and this spread prices the altitude and the name more than the form.

The Matchup

Portland is 4-1 and 3-0 on the road, the surprise start of the season in the West. The Trail Blazers score 120.6 points per game and allow 109.2, and they have done it with balance.

Deni Avdija has been their best all-around player, Scoot Henderson and Jrue Holiday share the backcourt, Damian Lillard is back in a Portland uniform picking his spots, and Donovan Clingan protects the rim behind them. The absences are real, too. Ja Morant is out with a hamstring problem until around December 1, and Shaedon Sharpe is out after knee surgery until March.

Denver is 3-2, and the profile is oddly flat for a team with Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets score 114.0 points per game and allow 115.2, which means they have been outscored across their first five games. Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are healthy and productive, and Denver went 54-28 last season, so the ceiling is not in doubt. The week-to-week form, though, has been ordinary, and Julian Strawther is out with a knee sprain until around November 29.

DraftKings makes Denver a 4.5-point home favorite at Ball Arena, with the Nuggets at -170 on the moneyline and a total of 229.5.

Key Factors

Altitude is Denver's standing edge, and Portland is the wrong team to use it against. The Trail Blazers play fast, play deep, and have won all three of their road games, which suggests a young rotation that does not wilt late. If Portland is still level or ahead entering the fourth quarter, its legs have already answered the altitude question.

Jokic, as always, is the counterargument in one name. He can dismantle a defense with Clingan in drop coverage, and Murray's two-man game with him is still the most reliable half-court offense in the league. Portland's plan will be to make Denver's other players beat them, crowd Jokic's passing lanes, and live with his scoring. That plan has failed against plenty of teams, but Portland's perimeter length, Avdija and Toumani Camara especially, is built for exactly this assignment.

The scoring environment favors a close finish. Both teams play in the 110s and 120s, the total sits at 229.5, and Portland's offense has not had a bad night yet. Denver should have the best player and the home crowd. Portland has had the better season, and getting points with the team in better form, in a game this likely to be decided late, is the side to be on.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.