Columbus Blue Jackets vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction: Best Bet for Friday

Tage Thompson has 21 points for a Buffalo team that kills 69.8 percent of its penalties, the shakiest combination a home favorite can carry. Columbus brings a clean injury report and the steadier goaltender to KeyBank Center, but the Blue Jackets have won once in five road games, and something in that mix has to give.

The Matchup

Buffalo is 7-5-3, scoring 2.93 goals per game and allowing 3.33, a -0.40 differential that undersells what the top of the lineup is doing. Tage Thompson leads the Sabres with 11 goals and 21 points, Alex Tuch has 8 goals and 18 points, and Rasmus Dahlin has 13 assists from the blue line. Buffalo has taken points in eight of its last ten games, at 5-2-3, and most of the damage has come from those three.

Columbus is 6-7-0, scoring 2.69 per game and allowing 3.15 for a -0.46 differential, a near mirror of Buffalo's line. Kirill Marchenko leads the Blue Jackets with 8 goals and 18 points, Charlie Coyle has 12 assists, and Zach Werenski has 11 assists. The Blue Jackets are not short on skill. They are short on road results: Columbus is 1-4-0 away from home, with two points from five road games, and its form has split 4-6-0 over the last ten.

Columbus also owns the cleanest availability picture in this game. The Blue Jackets' injury report is empty. Buffalo lists five players out, and the name that matters most is in goal.

Key Factors

The crease belongs to Columbus, and it is the strongest underdog argument in this game. Jet Greaves has a 3.10 goals-against average and a .901 save percentage for the Blue Jackets. Buffalo's better goaltender, Alex Lyon at 3.02 and .898, is on injured reserve with an upper body injury, so the Sabres net falls to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen at 3.53 and .888. Buffalo is also missing defensemen Matt Grzelcyk and Jack Rathbone, both on injured reserve, which thins the group in front of Luukkonen.

Special teams are a hazard in both directions, because neither kill can be trusted. Buffalo kills 69.8 percent of its penalties, the weakest mark in this game, and Columbus kills 72.5 percent. The power plays facing them convert at 17.1 percent for Columbus and 16.3 percent for Buffalo, ordinary units getting their friendliest matchups of the season. Whoever takes the extra penalty probably pays for it.

The favorite case is Buffalo itself, and the underdog case is Greaves plus a healthy roster plus that Buffalo kill. It fails on the road split and the finishing gap. Columbus has won once away from home, scores 2.69 a night, and has to outscore Thompson and Tuch in their building with a backup-goalie problem of Buffalo's balanced by a road problem of its own. Buffalo's top line is the best unit on the ice, and at home it gets the matchups it wants.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.