Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Both teams played tonight, and both play again tomorrow, but only one of them has to get on a plane. Cleveland won at home and then traveled to Atlanta, while the Hawks stay in their own building, where two tired defenses meet a total of 239.5.

The Matchup

Cleveland is 3-1 and playing the steadier basketball. The Cavaliers score 119.8 points per game and allow 117.8, and they closed out Washington 121-111 at home tonight behind a frontcourt that controlled the game. Evan Mobley scored 24 points with 12 rebounds and made five of his six threes, Jarrett Allen added 12 rebounds and 3 blocks, and Donovan Mitchell ran the offense with 19 points and 7 assists alongside James Harden. Cleveland has no players listed on the injury report for this game.

Atlanta is 2-3, and the record hides how well the Hawks have scored. They average 120.2 points per game and allow 115.2, and Jalen Johnson is the hub of everything, leading Atlanta in scoring, rebounding and assists. Tonight showed both sides of him.

Johnson played 36 minutes in a 129-117 home loss to Miami and still produced 12 points, 9 rebounds and 11 assists, but Atlanta's defense gave the game away. The Hawks are thinner up front than they want to be. Mouhamed Gueye is out with a fracture in his left foot, with a return expected around November 20, and Henri Veesaar is out with a right knee injury and is expected to miss the season.

With both teams only a week into the season, these numbers pair this season's games with last season's final marks, and last season flatters Cleveland. The Cavaliers outscored opponents by 4.1 points per game last season, the Hawks by 2.5, so Atlanta's early scoring edge comes with a warning label. DraftKings prices this as a coin flip at State Farm Arena, with Atlanta favored by 1.5 points, both teams at -110 on the moneyline, and a total of 239.5.

Key Factors

The schedule is the loudest fact in this game. Both teams play the second night of a back-to-back, but the nights are not equal. Cleveland won at home tonight and then traveled to Atlanta, while the Hawks played at home and stay home, with no flight and no hotel. In a game the market prices as a toss-up, that difference usually shows up late, when closeouts slow down and tired jump shots start falling short. Johnson's 36 minutes tonight are the counterweight for Atlanta, and his legs are the thing to watch early.

Cleveland's frontcourt is the matchup problem Atlanta has to solve. Mobley is shooting threes with real confidence, Allen protects the rim behind him, and the Cavaliers pulled down 47 rebounds as a team tonight. Atlanta was outrebounded 52-40 by Miami in its own building, and with Gueye and Veesaar out, Onyeka Okongwu carries a heavy load against two starting-caliber bigs. If Cleveland wins the glass the way it did tonight, the travel stops mattering, because second chances let a tired team score without running.

Atlanta's defense is the honest worry on the other side. The Hawks allowed 129 points tonight and let Miami shoot 53 percent, and a defense that leaky can hand a road team easy confidence in the first quarter.

What Atlanta does have is an offense that shares the ball and keeps scoring even when Johnson sits for a stretch, and the total of 239.5 tells the story of this matchup. Two teams that both score around 120 points per game, both playing on tired legs, should produce a loose, high-scoring game, and loose games at home tend to tilt toward the team that did not fly the night before.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.