Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Two winless teams meet in New Orleans, and neither one can stop anybody. Sacramento has allowed 125.5 points per game through four losses, New Orleans has allowed 128.0 through three, and the loser of this one heads toward November still looking for a first win.

The Matchup

Sacramento is 0-4, and the losses have not stayed close for long. The Kings score 107.8 points per game this season and allow 125.5, and they have given up 121 or more in all four games, including 130 at San Antonio on Tuesday. Zach LaVine has been the one reliable source of offense.

He leads Sacramento at 27.2 points per game and is shooting 52.2 percent, but too many possessions still end with him creating something late in the clock. Domantas Sabonis leads the Kings at 16.5 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game, a center asked to be the rebounder and the playmaker at once, and Sacramento shoots just 30 percent from three around him, so defenses can crowd both of them.

New Orleans is 0-3 and somehow both better and worse. The Pelicans score 124.7 points per game and allow 128.0, and all three losses have been shootouts, capped by a 141-135 overtime loss at Denver on Saturday. Zion Williamson leads New Orleans at 20.7 points per game on 56.4 percent shooting, Dejounte Murray leads the team at 6.3 assists per game, and Derik Queen leads the Pelicans at 8.3 rebounds per game.

With both teams only a week into the season, these numbers pair this season's games with last season's final marks, and Sacramento was the weaker team on both counts. The Kings were outscored by 10.0 points per game last season, the Pelicans by 4.5.

DraftKings makes New Orleans a 5.5-point home favorite at the Smoothie King Center, with the Pelicans at -198 on the moneyline and a total of 237.5.

Key Factors

Sacramento's defense is the problem New Orleans is built to punish. The Kings block just 2.5 shots per game, and their backup frontcourt is gone. Keegan Murray is out with an ankle injury, a return expected around November 6. Dylan Cardwell is out with a left calf strain, and Maxime Raynaud is out with a dislocated right knee.

That leaves Sabonis to protect the rim and still carry the rebounding, and Williamson shooting 56.4 percent at the rim is a bad matchup for a frontcourt that thin. New Orleans also forces mistakes. The Pelicans average 11.7 steals per game, and Sacramento turns the ball over 14.8 times per game, so live-ball turnovers turn into easy Pelicans baskets before the Kings can set a defense.

New Orleans has its own leak, and it is just as big. The Pelicans allow 128.0 points per game, and Yves Missi is out with a left knee bruise. If LaVine gets his usual scoring night and Sacramento's shooters finally make threes at better than 30 percent, the Kings can trade baskets all night and this stays close. The total of 237.5 reflects that. Both teams would rather run than defend, and the game should be played fast and loose at both ends.

The schedule tilts toward Sacramento, and it is the honest worry here. New Orleans plays Denver at home tonight and turns around on no rest, while Sacramento has tonight off after playing Tuesday. A tired home team with a bad defense is a real risk. What answers it is where this game is decided. Sacramento's problem is not legs. It is a frontcourt with one healthy center and a defense that has not slowed anyone in four games, fresh or not.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.