Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trail Blazers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Two unbeaten teams meet in Portland, and they win in opposite ways. Memphis is 4-0 on defense and the glass, Portland is 3-0 scoring 129.3 points per game, and one of them leaves the Moda Center with its first loss.

The Matchup

Memphis is 4-0, and the start is built on size. The Grizzlies score 116.8 points per game and allow 107.0, and they pull down 50.0 rebounds per game, a number that ends defensive possessions and starts second chances. Ty Jerome has been the surprise of the first week.

He leads Memphis at 29.8 points and 6.5 assists per game, scoring efficiently and running the offense like a veteran starter. Cameron Boozer leads the Grizzlies at 10.5 rebounds per game, and Memphis blocks 6.3 shots per game behind its big front line. Memphis has no players listed on the injury report for this game.

Portland is 3-0 and scoring in bunches. The Trail Blazers average 129.3 points per game and allow 110.7, and they shoot 51 percent as a team. Deni Avdija leads Portland at 22.3 points per game, Ja Morant leads the team at 6.3 assists per game in his new home, and Donovan Clingan leads Portland at 9.3 rebounds per game.

Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday give Portland a veteran guard rotation most young teams do not have. Shaedon Sharpe is out after right knee surgery, a long absence that removes one of Portland's best athletes. Chris Youngblood is listed out with left ankle soreness and a return date of October 29, so keep an eye on whether Youngblood plays before placing a bet.

With both teams only a week into the season, these numbers pair this season's games with last season's final marks, and that history flatters Memphis less than its start does. Memphis was outscored by 6.0 points per game last season, Portland by 0.3, so Portland's edge at home is real even after the hot starts are set aside.

DraftKings makes Portland a 6.5-point home favorite at the Moda Center, with the Trail Blazers at -258 on the moneyline and a total of 232.5.

Key Factors

Memphis wins the possession game, and that is what keeps an underdog close on the road. Fifty rebounds a night means Portland's misses are usually one and done, and Memphis's own misses come back often enough to slow the game down.

Portland wants to run off makes and misses alike and turn this into the kind of track meet it played in a 136-129 win at the Lakers on Tuesday. Memphis has the bodies to refuse that game. Zach Edey, Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Stewart can keep Clingan occupied and make Portland score in the half court, where its hot shooting will be harder to sustain.

Jerome against Portland's guards is the matchup inside the matchup. He has been Memphis's best scorer and its lead guard, and he has handled every coverage so far by getting into the paint and making the right read.

Holiday is a strong on-ball defender and Morant will spend time on him too, but if Portland has to help, Memphis's shooters are making 39 percent from three. Portland's own creation is more spread out, with Avdija scoring off the bounce and Morant pushing the pace, and Memphis will have to guard in space without fouling.

Memphis's flaw is the ball. The Grizzlies turn it over 17.0 times per game, the kind of sloppiness that feeds Portland's running game and its 8.3 steals per game. That is what beats this pick. If Portland turns Memphis over early and builds a double-digit lead, the Grizzlies will be chasing the game instead of controlling it. Memphis does have the rest edge, with two nights off after playing Monday while Portland played Tuesday, and a slower, fresher team is exactly the wrong visitor for a favorite that wants pace.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.