New Jersey Devils vs Dallas Stars Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday
Dallas allows 1.73 goals per game, the stingiest mark on Tuesday's slate, and its starter sits at a 1.43 goals-against average through nine starts. New Jersey scores 3.27 per game and has won three straight, but the Devils are 1-2-0 on the road against 6-2-0 at home, and this one is played in Dallas.
The Matchup
Dallas defends like no one else on this slate. The Stars allow 1.73 goals per game, kill penalties at 92.3 percent, and have won five straight, beating Colorado in a shootout, Chicago 4-0, Boston and Winnipeg in overtime, and the Islanders 6-3.
Jake Oettinger is the foundation, at 6-2 with a 1.43 goals-against average and a .929 save percentage, and Casey DeSmith has been nearly as good in relief at 1.94 and .925. The scoring is top-heavy but the top is elite. Mikko Rantanen has 14 points, Jason Robertson 13, and Roope Hintz 10, three forwards who can produce the two or three goals this defense usually needs.
New Jersey arrives hot and lopsided. The Devils have won three straight and four of five, scoring 3.27 goals per game behind Jack Hughes, who has 3 goals and 9 assists for 12 points, Jesper Bratt at 10 points, and Arseny Gritsyuk, whose 6 goals lead the team. The split that matters is in the standings.
New Jersey is 6-2-0 at home and 1-2-0 on the road. The soft spot is the crease. Jake Allen is 5-2 but with a 2.84 goals-against average and an .886 save percentage, and Nico Daws sits at 2.78 and .872. The Devils' skaters have outplayed their goaltending all season.
Key Factors
Goaltending is the widest gap in this game, and it is not close. Oettinger's 1.43 average and .929 save percentage against Allen's .886 is a full tier of difference, and in a game with a 5.5 total, one soft goal is likely to be the margin. Dallas's structure protects its goalie, too, allowing the fewest goals per game on the slate, so New Jersey's forwards will see fewer clean looks than their 3.27 average suggests.
Special teams tilt the same way. New Jersey kills at 74.1 percent, a weak unit, and Rantanen quarterbacks a Dallas power play that only needs to be ordinary at 18.5 percent to find its goal. Dallas kills at 92.3 percent, which blunts a New Jersey power play converting at 20.6 percent. The Devils' best route to goals, Hughes and Bratt in transition, runs into a team that gives up almost nothing off the rush.
Availability is a secondary factor here. Dallas is without Matt Duchene, who is on long-term injured reserve, and Esa Lindell is on injured reserve, while Radek Faksa and Sam Steel are day to day. New Jersey lists Connor Hellebuyck as out and Seamus Casey on injured reserve.
The counterpoint is New Jersey's top line. Hughes and Bratt can break a one-goal game in a single shift, Dallas scores only 2.82 per game so its margin for an off night is thin, and the Devils just won 3-1 in Los Angeles, proof the road split is not a law. If Allen plays to his best level, this is a coin flip late.
Oettinger and the stingiest defense on the slate are a hard combination to beat at home, and New Jersey's goaltending has not matched its skaters anywhere this season. Dallas wins low-scoring games for a living. Take the Dallas Stars moneyline at -125.
Game information
| DATE | Tuesday (10/27) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 7:00 PM CT |
| HOW TO WATCH | NHL |
| VENUE | American Airlines Center |
| TOTAL | 5.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Dallas Stars ML |
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Player props for this game
2 props- Timo Meier Shots On GoalOver 2.5 -100
- Tyler Seguin Shots On GoalOver 1.5 -136
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