Charlotte Hornets vs Detroit Pistons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Detroit is unbeaten and playing its second game in two nights after a trip to New York. Charlotte arrives 3-1, rested, and built around Brandon Miller, against a Pistons team missing its starting center. A short-handed favorite on tired legs is a different favorite.

The Matchup

Detroit is 3-0, and the start is built on defense. The Pistons score 118.3 points per game this season and allow 105.7, and Cade Cunningham runs everything at 21.3 points and 8.0 assists per game. The hole is in the middle. Jalen Duren is out tonight with a strained right hamstring, a return expected around November 9, so Paul Reed starts at center after leading Detroit at 8.3 rebounds per game in a reserve role.

Isaiah Joe is also out tonight with a bruised right hip. Ausar Thompson, pictured at the line, gives the Pistons their best perimeter defender. Detroit went 60-22 last season, the East's best record, and nothing about the start argues with it.

Charlotte is 3-1 with a strange profile. The Hornets score only 104.0 points per game and allow 111.0, yet keep winning close games behind Brandon Miller, who leads the team at 24.2 points per game. Naz Reid leads Charlotte at 9.5 rebounds per game, and Dennis Schroder runs the offense at 4.5 assists per game.

The Hornets are short-handed too. Coby White is out with a strained left calf, Kon Knueppel is out with a hamstring injury, and Grant Williams is out with a hamstring injury of his own. Charlotte went 44-38 last season and has started like a team that expects to be back in the playoffs.

Detroit played in New York on Tuesday night, so the Pistons are on the second night of a back-to-back while Charlotte rested. DraftKings makes Detroit a 7.5-point favorite at Little Caesars Arena, with a total of 216.5, the lowest on tonight's board.

Key Factors

Reed against Reid is where Duren's absence gets tested. Reed competes and rebounds above his size, but he gives up strength to Reid on the block and on the offensive glass. Charlotte's best path to staying close is second chances and a slow game, and a backup center playing starter's minutes is where those come from. If Reed holds his own early, Detroit's defense closes the door the way it has all month. If Charlotte is living on putbacks, the favorite's margin never grows.

The total of 216.5 expects a grind, and a grind suits the underdog with points in hand. Charlotte scores 104.0 a night because the Hornets play deliberately around Miller's isolations. Detroit on tired legs is unlikely to push pace for 48 minutes either. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances for the better team to separate, and every empty trip in the fourth quarter protects the points.

Miller against Thompson is the individual duel. Thompson is one of the few defenders long enough to bother Miller without help, and Detroit can keep its scheme intact if he holds up alone. Miller scoring over him anyway is Charlotte's whole case, and he has been good enough to make it a real one.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.