Philadelphia 76ers vs Charlotte Hornets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Philadelphia is 5-1 and winning with defense, allowing 105.0 points per game, and now the 76ers fly to Charlotte on the second night of a back-to-back without Jaylen Brown. Charlotte cannot score the way it did last season, but the Hornets guard their own floor, and a tired favorite in a low-scoring building is a shaky thing.

The Matchup

Philadelphia is 5-1, and the surprise is how the 76ers are winning. They score 108.7 points per game and allow 105.0, a defense-first profile from a team that went 45-37 last season while scoring 115.9 and allowing 116.1. Tyrese Maxey leads Philadelphia at 28.4 points per game, LeBron James leads the team at 6.8 assists per game, and Joel Embiid leads the 76ers at 10.0 rebounds per game. The stars are healthy and the defense travels, which is why the record is real.

The scoring has a hole in it tonight. Jaylen Brown is out tonight. He has a knee injury, and after playing in the first four games he sat out last night against New York. Philadelphia scored 98 points against the Knicks, its lowest total of the season, and that is what this offense looks like when Maxey has to create nearly everything himself. Jabari Walker is also out with knee soreness, and Dominick Barlow is out with a back fracture, so the forward rotation behind the starters is thin on a back-to-back.

Charlotte is 3-3, and the Hornets are nearly Philadelphia's mirror. They score 97.3 points per game and allow 106.0, a grinding team one season after a 44-38 Charlotte squad scored 116.0 and allowed 111.2. Brandon Miller leads Charlotte at 25.6 points per game, Dennis Schroder leads the team at 4.8 assists per game, and Moussa Diabate leads the Hornets at 9.4 rebounds per game.

The low scoring is not a slump with an obvious fix coming. Kon Knueppel is out with a hamstring injury, Coby White is out with a calf strain, and Grant Williams is out with a hamstring injury, and Charlotte has played every game this season without all three. DraftKings makes Philadelphia a 1.5-point favorite at Spectrum Center, with a total of 216.5 and the 76ers at -120 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

Both teams played last night, and the trips were not equal. Philadelphia beat New York 98-93 at home and then got on a plane. Charlotte lost 95-79 at Washington and came home to its own building. On the second night of a back-to-back, the home team's legs usually hold up longer, and in a game where points are this hard to find, that edge shows up in the fourth quarter, when a tired road team's closeouts arrive a step late.

The total is the lowest on the slate, and it shapes everything. Two defenses allowing 105.0 and 106.0 points per game, two offenses missing rotation scorers, and a pace that grinds every possession down. A short spread in a grind is really a bet on the last two minutes, and Charlotte has the one player built to win those minutes in this building. Miller scored 34 points against Miami here a week ago, and he gives the Hornets a closer Philadelphia has to scheme for even with its defense set.

The counterpoint is Philadelphia's top end, and it is a strong one. Maxey and Embiid are the two best players in the game, and Embiid against Diabate inside is a mismatch Charlotte has no clean answer for. If Embiid controls the glass and gets Charlotte's frontcourt in foul trouble early, Philadelphia can win this game at the line and make the home crowd irrelevant. Charlotte's cover needs the game to stay a grind into the final minutes, where the legs and the building start to matter.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.