Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Colorado scores 4.00 goals per game and Nathan MacKinnon has 27 points, the heaviest attack on the Saturday slate. Detroit arrives without Dylan Larkin, its captain and one of its few finishers, for a road game at Ball Arena that was already asking a lot of the Red Wings.

The Matchup

Colorado is 9-6-2, scoring 4.00 goals per game and allowing 3.24, a +0.76 differential built by the league's most relentless home attack in this matchup. Nathan MacKinnon leads the Avalanche with 27 points on 18 assists, and Artturi Lehkonen has 12 goals. Colorado is 6-1-2 at home, and Ball Arena games keep tilting until the visiting team runs out of answers.

Detroit is 7-7-3, scoring 2.76 per game and allowing 2.94 for a -0.18 differential. Alex DeBrincat leads the Red Wings with 16 points, Viktor Arvidsson has 8 goals, and Lucas Raymond has 10 assists. Detroit has gone 5-4-1 over its last ten and is 3-2-2 on the road, a competitive team in most buildings. Ball Arena, without its captain, is not most buildings.

Key Factors

Dylan Larkin is out for Detroit, with a return date of November 14 in the Red Wings' report. Losing Larkin takes Detroit's most important forward out of a game where the Red Wings already score 1.24 fewer goals per night than Colorado.

Daniil Tarasov has been Detroit's better goaltender, at a 1.79 goals-against average and a .930 save percentage, and John Gibson is listed with a return date of November 7 after a lower body injury. Keep an eye on whether Gibson plays before placing a bet. Mackenzie Blackwood has a 2.81 goals-against average and a .893 save percentage for Colorado.

Special teams are closer than the records suggest, and they are Detroit's best argument. The Red Wings convert 22.8 percent on the power play and Colorado converts 20.0 percent, while Colorado kills 76.9 percent and Detroit kills 71.7 percent.

Colorado is missing Josh Manson, who is out with a lower body injury, which opens a real lane for Detroit's power play. What Detroit cannot fix is even strength: 2.76 scored and 2.94 allowed, against a home team scoring 4.00 a night in a building where it has lost once in regulation.

The Detroit case is Tarasov, the power play, and a big underdog price on a team that rarely gets blown out. It fails because the price is big for a reason. Colorado's differential, home split, and scoring depth all point the same way, and Detroit is trying to keep up without the forward who drives its offense.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.