Indiana Pacers vs Brooklyn Nets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week
Brooklyn is winless and playing for the second time in two nights, and Indiana still has to prove it can guard anyone away from home. Tyrese Haliburton is back running the Pacers, but the Nets have two forwards who can score without a play being drawn up for them, and that is an awkward mix for a road favorite that keeps trading baskets instead of getting stops.
The Matchup
Indiana is 1-1 and laying points on the road with a defense that has not stopped anyone yet. The Pacers have scored 114.0 points per game and allowed 120.5, while Brooklyn is 0-2 after scoring 112.0 and allowing 117.5.
On the early numbers Brooklyn has defended slightly better, and last season left these teams close together at the bottom. Indiana finished 19-63 at -8.0 and Brooklyn finished 20-62 at -10.0. DraftKings makes Indiana a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 231.5 and Indiana at -270 on the moneyline.
Haliburton is the reason Indiana is priced this way, and he does look like himself again after missing all of last season with a torn Achilles. He handed out 12 assists in the opener at New Orleans, then scored 18 points with 7 assists against Dallas on Friday, when Pascal Siakam led Indiana with 23 points.
Brooklyn answers with size on the wing rather than a true point guard. Michael Porter Jr. scored 28 points and grabbed 9 rebounds at Cleveland on Saturday, Julius Randle scored 33 points against Charlotte in the opener, and Egor Demin added 22 points at Cleveland, so the Nets have more than one way to score when a set breaks down.
Key Factors
Indiana's bench creation takes a real hit tonight. T.J. McConnell is out with a right hamstring strain, and he is the guard who runs the Pacers when Haliburton sits. Johnny Furphy is out after right ACL surgery and Ben Sheppard is out with a left meniscus tear.
Aaron Nesmith is probable with a left hamstring strain, so Indiana expects its starting wing back. Brooklyn's absences are smaller. Mikel Brown Jr. is out for back injury management and Tyler Bilodeau is out with a right shoulder sprain, and neither absence touches the Porter Jr. and Randle scoring the Nets lean on.
The honest problem with the home side is the schedule. Brooklyn played at Cleveland on Saturday night and came home for the second night of a back-to-back, while Indiana has been off since Friday. Tired legs in the fourth quarter are how a home underdog cover dies, and Haliburton pushing the ball early is exactly the test Brooklyn does not want. What keeps Brooklyn in it is the shape of the game.
The two teams have combined for 226.0 points per game so far, a normal scoring level rather than a track meet, and in a half-court game Randle and Porter Jr. can manufacture a basket against a defense that has given up points to everyone. If Indiana's starters build a double-digit lead early and Brooklyn's shots start falling short, this cover is gone. Short of that, a road favorite this leaky has no business needing a comfortable win.
Indiana has the better roster and is still the worse bet at this price. The Pacers have not guarded well enough to be trusted laying points on the road, and Brooklyn has two forwards who can get their own shot late, when a cover is usually decided. The back-to-back is the worry here, not the matchup. We have Brooklyn by 2.0 at home. Take Brooklyn Nets +6.5 at -105.
Game information
| DATE | Sunday (10/25) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 5:00 PM CT |
| HOW TO WATCH | League Pass |
| VENUE | Barclays Center |
| SPREAD | Indiana Pacers -6.5 |
| TOTAL | 231.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Indiana Pacers -270 |
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