Los Angeles Kings vs Washington Capitals Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday
Los Angeles Kings (0-4-2) visits Washington Capitals (5-3-0) on Tuesday. Our data-driven pick: Washington Capitals -1.5.
The Matchup
Six games in, Los Angeles is the only winless team on the Tuesday board, and the underlying numbers say the 0-4-2 record is not bad luck. The Kings score 2.00 and allow 4.17 per game for a -2.17 differential, and they do it while attempting 29.8 shots per game, so the volume exists and the finishing and defending do not. Washington is 5-3-0 and 4-1-0 at home, scoring 3.50 and allowing 3.00 for a +0.50 differential.
The total for this game is 5.5, the joint-lowest on the board, which reflects Los Angeles's scoring problems more than any defensive strength: a team scoring 2.00 per game drags every total down with it. The question is not whether Washington is better. It is whether a Capitals team allowing 3.00 per game can build a two-goal margin against an opponent that rarely scores.
Key Factors
First, the Kings' penalty kill at 61.9 percent is the worst unit in this game by a wide margin, and Washington's 19.0 percent power play is competent enough to punish a kill that fails nearly four times in ten. Second, Los Angeles's own power play converts just 14.3 percent against a Washington kill at 82.1 percent, so the Kings have no special-teams route back into a game that gets away from them.
Third, the home split matters: Washington is 4-1-0 at Capital One Arena, while Los Angeles is 0-1-2 on the road and still searching for a first win anywhere. The Kings do win 52.8 percent of faceoffs against Washington's 51.1, their one edge, but possession has not converted into goals at 2.00 per game.
Washington Capitals -1.5 at +160. The differential gap is +2.67, the widest on the Tuesday board, and it is built from both directions: Washington scores 3.50 per game against a team allowing 4.17, and Los Angeles scores 2.00 per game with a 61.9 percent penalty kill that keeps handing opponents extra goals.
Puck lines always carry the 3-2 win risk, and Washington's own 3.00 goals against is the reason this pays +160 instead of a shorter price. But a winless team that cannot score, cannot kill penalties, and has not won in six tries has to prove it can stay within one goal on the road against a 4-1-0 home team. Nothing in the Kings' season says that yet. Capitals minus-1.5.
Game information
| DATE | Tuesday (10/20) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 6:00 PM CT |
| HOW TO WATCH | NHL |
| VENUE | Capital One Arena |
| SPREAD | Washington Capitals -1.5 |
| TOTAL | 5.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Washington Capitals ML |
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Player props for this game
3 props- Alex Ovechkin Shots On GoalUnder 2.5 -104
- Brandt Clarke Shots On GoalOver 1.5 -150
- Artemi Panarin Shots On GoalOver 2.5 -124
Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.