Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Lakers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Portland is 2-0 and has allowed 83 points in one win and 120 in the other, the widest split on tonight's board. The Lakers are 3-0 behind Luka Doncic, who is averaging 34.3 points, and they have not scored fewer than 125 points in a game yet. The hottest offense in the league's first week against its stingiest early defense, in a game the market cannot separate, is a proper late-night test.

The Matchup

Los Angeles is 3-0, and the offense has been relentless. The Lakers beat Golden State 127-105, beat the Clippers 125-117, then won 132-123 at Utah on Sunday. They score 128.0 points per game and allow 115.0, and Doncic has been the best player in the league's first week.

He leads the Lakers at 34.3 points and 8.0 assists per game, with Austin Reaves beside him and Walker Kessler leading the team at 8.0 rebounds per game. Last season the Lakers went 53-29. This start says the offense, at least, is ahead of that pace.

Portland is 2-0 with two very different wins. The Blazers beat Phoenix 124-83 at home, a defensive performance as good as any in the league this week, then won 128-120 at Sacramento. They score 126.0 points per game and allow 101.5, the best defensive mark on tonight's board.

Damian Lillard, back in Portland, leads the Blazers at 22.0 points per game. Ja Morant runs the offense at 7.5 assists per game, and Deni Avdija leads the team at 8.5 rebounds per game. Portland went 42-40 last season, so two games prove little on their own. The defensive end is what makes this start worth taking seriously.

Shaedon Sharpe is out tonight after right knee surgery, with a return expected in March. Scoot Henderson is day-to-day tonight with soreness in his left ankle. Keep an eye on whether Henderson plays before placing a bet.

Branden Carlson is also day-to-day with a concussion, and Chris Youngblood is out with soreness in his left ankle. Los Angeles is without Adou Thiero, who is out with inflammation in his left knee and a return expected around October 28. DraftKings makes Los Angeles a 1.5-point favorite, with a total of 233.5.

Key Factors

Doncic against Portland's defense is the matchup everything else hangs on. Portland held Phoenix to 83 points with length on the wing from Avdija and Toumani Camara and a real rim presence behind them. Doncic is a different problem. He scores against length, he finds Kessler when help comes, and he has not had a quiet game yet. If Portland's defense bends without breaking, holding the Lakers near 115 instead of 128, the Blazers are live all night. If Doncic gets 40, the points will not save this pick.

Portland's own creation is better than the market treats it. Lillard and Morant can both run a pick-and-roll, and the Lakers have allowed 123 and 117 in their last two games. Portland has scored 124 or more in both of its games, against defenses that knew what was coming. In a game priced this close, the underdog with two creators and the better defense has more ways to win than the favorite with one superstar.

The total of 233.5 expects a shootout, and a shootout favors the team that has been in three of them. Portland's path is the opposite. Slow Doncic's games down, rebound with Avdija and Donovan Clingan, and turn the fourth quarter into a half-court game. The Blazers do not need to stop the Lakers' offense. They need it to look ordinary for one night.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.