Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Memphis has been the surprise of the opening week and Sacramento the alarm bell, and the frontcourt is where this one turns. Zach Edey is out for the Grizzlies tonight, which hands Domantas Sabonis the matchup he wants, against a Kings defense that has not made anyone uncomfortable yet.

The Matchup

Memphis is 2-0 and winning with defense as much as offense. The Grizzlies have scored 117.0 points per game and allowed 105.5, a +11.5 differential. Sacramento is 0-2 after scoring 108.0 and allowing 124.5, a -16.5 mark that is the worst early differential in the league. Last season pulls Memphis back and the gap stays wide anyway. The Grizzlies finished 25-57 at -6.0 and the Kings finished 22-60 at -10.0. DraftKings makes Memphis a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 234.5 and Memphis at -166 on the moneyline.

Ty Jerome is driving the surprise. He scored 45 points against Utah in the opener and 28 more at Golden State on Friday, and he has turned a rebuilt Memphis backcourt into the team's engine while Jerami Grant and rookie Cameron Boozer give him size and secondary scoring around the ball. Sacramento leans on Sabonis inside and Zach LaVine on the perimeter, and both have had to create against defenses that already know where the ball is going.

Memphis is not whole in the middle. Zach Edey is out tonight for left ankle injury management. He started both games of the opening week and averaged 9.5 rebounds and 2.0 blocks, and he is sitting the front end of a back-to-back after two ankle surgeries, with Monday at Utah his next chance to return. Isaiah Stewart is expected to start in his place. That still leaves Memphis smaller against Sabonis, and it is the one clear edge Sacramento owns tonight.

Key Factors

Sacramento's defense is a two-season problem, not a bad week. The Kings allowed 121.0 points per game across last season's losing campaign, and this year's group has been worse, with opposing guards getting into the paint and the help arriving late. Memphis does not need a hot shooting night against that. It needs Jerome probing, Grant attacking closeouts, and Boozer finishing plays that Sacramento's rotations leave open, and that is the offense Memphis has already run twice.

Sacramento also looks likely to lose a starter. Keegan Murray is doubtful to play tonight with left ankle capsulitis. He tweaked the ankle against Portland on Friday and felt stiffness in the same ankle he had surgery on in May, and Precious Achiuwa is the likely replacement if Murray sits. Dylan Cardwell is out with a left calf strain, Maxime Raynaud is out with a right patella subluxation and Ben Simmons is out for the season after Achilles surgery, so the Kings are thin behind Sabonis as well.

Memphis has one open question of its own. Cedric Coward is questionable to play tonight with a left wrist sprain, after he was doubtful at Golden State on Friday. Keep an eye on whether Coward plays before placing a bet, because his wing minutes matter more on a night when Memphis is already missing size.

The posted total prices a shootout, and the scoring so far does not support one. These teams have combined for 225.0 points per game, and the shortfall sits mostly with a Sacramento offense that has had to work for everything against softer defenses than this one. A lower-scoring game favors the side that gets stops, and that is Memphis. The risk is Sabonis.

Without Edey, he can own the glass, draw fouls on Stewart, and keep Sacramento close almost by himself, and Memphis is still a team that won little last season now laying points on the road. If Jerome finally has a normal night and Sabonis controls the paint, the Kings can steal this. The likelier script is Sacramento chasing the game against a defense that makes it earn every basket.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.