Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week
Miami is the league's last winless team, and the defense is why. The Heat have allowed 121.8 points per game through four games, and now they walk into a building where Atlanta is scoring 121.0 a night behind Jalen Johnson. Something has to bend for a team that has not bent anybody yet.
The Matchup
Atlanta is 2-2, and the offense has traveled well. The Hawks score 121.0 points per game this season and allow 111.8, and Jalen Johnson has been the hub of everything. He leads Atlanta at 21.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game, a forward who rebounds his own misses and starts the break himself. CJ McCollum and Dyson Daniels fill in around him, and Onyeka Okongwu gives the Hawks a finisher at the rim. Last season Atlanta went 46-36, and this start looks like the same team with a better Johnson.
Miami is 0-4, the league's last winless team, and the record is not bad luck. The Heat score 109.0 points per game and allow 121.8, the worst defensive mark on tonight's board. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been enormous in defeat, leading Miami at 28.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game, with Davion Mitchell running the offense at 7.0 assists per game. Bam Adebayo is beside him, and the Heat went 43-39 last season, so the bones of a real team are here. The defense just has not shown up yet.
Aaron Wiggins is day-to-day for Atlanta with a bruised left knee. Keep an eye on whether Wiggins plays before placing a bet. Pelle Larsson is day-to-day for Miami with a sprained right ankle, and Simone Fontecchio is day-to-day through an illness. DraftKings makes Atlanta a 3.5-point favorite at State Farm Arena, with a total of 239.5.
Key Factors
Johnson is the matchup Miami has no clean answer for. He is too big for Miami's wings and too quick for its bigs, and when the Heat send help he is Atlanta's best passer. Miami's help defense has been late all month, which is how a team with Adebayo on the back line allows 121.8 a night. If Johnson is living in the paint early, Atlanta's shooters get the clean looks that turn a close game into a comfortable one.
The total of 239.5 tells the truth about Miami's end of the floor. Atlanta does not need to defend at an elite level to win this game. The Hawks need ordinary resistance and their usual pace, because the Heat have scored 109.0 a game against defenses that did not have to do anything special. Miami's path is a Giannis game that bends Atlanta's whole scheme, plus a shooting night from the role players that has not happened yet.
Rest is even, and the spot favors the home team in a simpler way. Atlanta is settled at home, Miami is traveling still looking for its first win, and winless teams press. The Heat's effort will be there. Effort has not been the problem. Stops have.
Miami has not defended anybody through four games, and Atlanta's offense is built to punish exactly that, with Johnson creating from the frontcourt and shooters spaced around him. Giannis keeps the Heat in games by himself, but one star against a balanced home offense is a hard way to live for a full game. Take the Atlanta Hawks -3.5 at -115.
Game information
| DATE | Wednesday (10/28) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 6:00 PM CT |
| HOW TO WATCH | League Pass |
| VENUE | State Farm Arena |
| SPREAD | Atlanta Hawks -3.5 |
| TOTAL | 239.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Atlanta Hawks -162 |
More picks this week
Player props for this game
1 prop- Davion Mitchell PointsOver 12.5 +101
Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.