Monmouth Hawks vs Rhode Island Rams Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Rhode Island scored 103 in its opener behind a guard group that barely gave the ball away, while Monmouth handed it over 18 times at St. John's. Saturday afternoon on a neutral floor at Mohegan Sun asks whether the Hawks can protect the ball well enough to keep this one close.

The Matchup

Monmouth meets Rhode Island on Saturday afternoon at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, a neutral floor, on NESN, with Rhode Island a 6.5-point favorite and a total of 146.5. Monmouth is 0-1 out of the Coastal Athletic Association. Rhode Island is 1-0 out of the Atlantic 10 Conference. Neither team is ranked, and there is no true home court here, even though the short trip from Kingston makes this a comfortable afternoon for the Rams.

The honest starting point is how close these two were a season ago. Last season Monmouth went 19-15, scoring 72.7 points a game and allowing 70.9, while Rhode Island went 16-16, scoring 69.9 and allowing 68.2. The per-game margins were nearly identical, Monmouth at plus 1.82 and Rhode Island at plus 1.69, which is why the two openers deserve a careful read instead of a loud one.

Rhode Island routed Holy Cross 103-59 at home in Kingston, and Monmouth lost 78-63 on the road at St. John's. A home game against Holy Cross and a road game against St. John's pressure are very different tests, so the gap in the early numbers is real but overstated, and what carries over is narrower: Rhode Island's guards shot it well and shared it, and Monmouth's guards struggled to get their team into anything.

Jonah Hinton is the Ram who changes the coverage. He scored 24 points in 26 minutes against Holy Cross on 8-of-11 shooting, with 6 threes in 9 tries, and no other Rhode Island player made more than 2 from deep. Matas Deniusas gives the Rams a second kind of problem, with 13 points and a team-high 8 rebounds in the opener, most of his scoring done by getting to the line 7 times in 23 minutes.

Jason Fontenet II ran the show cleanly, with 11 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists without a single turnover. Monmouth's best answer is Jakai Sanders, who scored 17 at St. John's on 5-of-7 shooting and 4-of-5 from three, with Madison Durr adding 15 off the bench and Ashton Walker 11. The Hawks can shoot. Whether they can get the ball to their shooters is the whole question.

Key Factors

Ball security decides this game, and the openers split it wide open. Monmouth gave the ball away 18 times at St. John's against only 12 assists, and the Red Storm turned those mistakes into 21 points, with 14 steals. Sanders alone had 7 turnovers, so the Hawks' best scorer is also the player Rhode Island will pressure first.

Rhode Island played the opposite game: 19 assists on 37 made field goals and only 5 turnovers all night, while Holy Cross gave it away 16 times. A guard group that careful, facing a backcourt that loose, usually gets extra possessions in bunches, and extra possessions are how a modest favorite pulls away.

The second edge sits inside. Rhode Island outrebounded Holy Cross 41-29, and Deniusas kept plays alive on the offensive glass.

Monmouth was outrebounded 40-31 at St. John's, lost the paint 38-28, and shot 7-of-14 at the free-throw line, which is a quiet way to bleed points in a game lined this tightly. The total of 146.5 fits Rhode Island's preferred script: the Rams played fast and shot 55 percent with 12 threes in their opener and scored 18 points in transition, and a faster game gives the better backcourt more chances to separate.

The counterpoint is real, and it wears a Monmouth jersey. The Hawks shot 8-of-20 from three at St. John's and held the Red Storm to 42 percent shooting, so this is not a defense Rhode Island can simply walk through the way it did against Holy Cross.

Durr's 15 off the bench gives Monmouth a second ballhandler if Sanders gets crowded, and a neutral floor takes away the Ryan Center crowd that fed the opener's rout. If Monmouth keeps its turnovers at an ordinary number and Sanders shoots anywhere near his opener, 6.5 points is a lot of room, and Rhode Island's 103-point night starts to look like a home game against an overmatched visitor rather than a preview of Saturday.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.