Ohio State vs USC Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Ohio State is ranked No. 2 and arrives at the Coliseum rested and favored, but USC has the passing game to answer back and make a road favorite earn every possession.
The Matchup
Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith set Ohio State's ceiling. Sayin has thrown for 2,007 yards and 19 touchdowns this season at 10.7 yards per attempt, and Smith has 984 yards and 12 touchdowns on 52 catches, a pairing that punishes any coverage mistake. Smith caught 4 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown in Ohio State's most recent game, and Ohio State scores 39.3 points per game while allowing only 13.4 points per game, dominance on both sides.
USC has a passing game that can answer in kind, which most Ohio State opponents do not. Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,302 yards and 19 touchdowns this season, more yardage than Sayin, and USC averages 303.5 passing yards per game against Ohio State's 323.1.
Maiava went 31 of 50 for 258 yards in USC's most recent game, a volume that shows USC will keep throwing at home even when the early returns are mixed. USC also converts 50.5 percent on third down against Ohio State's 44.3 percent, the best situational edge in this matchup. Those conversions are how USC keeps Sayin and Smith off the field and keeps a home game within one score deep into the night.
Key Factors
Ohio State's defense and rest are the strongest arguments against USC. The Buckeyes have 16 takeaways this season and have had 13 days since their last game against 6 days for USC, a preparation gap that usually shows up in disguised coverage and fresh legs late. USC allows 25.0 points per game, so Smith will find space, and Bo Jackson gives Ohio State a steady run option with 516 yards this season even though he was held to 56 yards on 18 carries in the most recent game.
USC's protection of drives matters more than its yardage. Maiava threw 2 interceptions in the loss at Wisconsin, and Sayin also threw 2 interceptions in Ohio State's most recent game, a 19-15 win at Indiana that showed the Buckeyes can be dragged into a tight game on the road.
Taniela Tupou caught 6 passes for 46 yards and a touchdown for USC in that Wisconsin game, a short-range outlet Maiava needs against this defense when the deep routes are taken away. What beats USC here is Ohio State turning Maiava's volume into mistakes. If the takeaways pile up and Smith scores early, USC's third-down edge will not matter because USC will be chasing by two scores.
Ohio State is deeper and better rested, and that may be enough to win at the Coliseum. It does not make the Buckeyes comfortable. USC can throw with them, extend drives, and keep asking questions a road favorite would rather not answer late. Take USC +7 at -110.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 7:30 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | NBC |
| VENUE | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles |
| SPREAD | Ohio State -7 |
| TOTAL | 50.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Ohio State -265 |
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