Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Oklahoma City is 4-0 and allowing 100.8 points per game, the best defense in the league, and the Thunder are doing it while their second-best player heals. Dallas has Cooper Flagg playing like a star already. A great defense against a one-man offense is a familiar story, and it usually ends the same way.

The Matchup

Oklahoma City is 4-0, and the defense is championship level already. The Thunder allow 100.8 points per game this season, the best mark in the league, while scoring 111.3 themselves. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads Oklahoma City at 27.2 points per game and closes games like a metronome. The Thunder are doing this short-handed.

Chet Holmgren is out tonight with a right knee injury, a return expected around October 31, and Alex Caruso is out with a right ankle injury. Holmgren leads the team at 9.3 rebounds per game even in absence, which shows what the Thunder are missing and winning without. Oklahoma City went 64-18 last season with the league's best defense, and the identity survived the summer.

Dallas is 2-2, and Cooper Flagg is already the Mavericks' best player. He leads Dallas at 25.0 points and 6.3 assists per game as a rookie, an enormous load, and P.J. Washington leads the team at 7.5 rebounds per game. The Mavericks score 112.5 points per game and allow 116.0, and too much of the offense is Flagg creating something from nothing late in the clock. Naji Marshall is day-to-day tonight through an illness. Dallas went 26-56 last season, and the rebuild now runs entirely through its rookie.

DraftKings makes Oklahoma City a 5.5-point road favorite at the American Airlines Center, with the Thunder at -205 on the moneyline and a total of 230.5.

Key Factors

Oklahoma City's defense against a one-creator offense is the whole analysis. The Thunder switch everything, help early and recover, and they have waves of long defenders to throw at Flagg without doubling.

One-creator teams against this defense end up taking hard shots late in the clock, and Dallas has no second creator proven enough to punish the attention Flagg gets. Kyrie Irving is on the roster but has not carried that load this season, and the Mavericks' 116.0 allowed says their own defense will not rescue a bad offensive night.

Holmgren's absence shows up at the rim and on the glass, where Dallas can compete. Isaiah Hartenstein gives Oklahoma City a physical starter, but the backup minutes are smaller and less protected, and Washington plays with the kind of energy that steals second chances. Dallas's clearest path is an offensive-rebounding night that keeps possessions alive and the home crowd in the game.

The fourth quarter is Gilgeous-Alexander's office. He gets to his spots against every coverage, he does not turn the ball over, and Oklahoma City's defense turns a six-point lead with three minutes left into a near certainty. Dallas can keep this close for a long time. Closing it is a different job, and the Thunder are the league's best at it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.