Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Ottawa brings a 12-6-2 record and the best goaltending line in this game to Pittsburgh, where the Penguins allow 3.47 goals per game and are missing Bryan Rust. Saturday is the first meeting of the season, and the crease is where it should be decided.

The Matchup

Ottawa is 12-6-2, scoring 3.10 goals per game and allowing 3.00, a +0.10 differential. Tim Stutzle leads the Senators in everything, with 10 goals, 14 assists and 24 points. Ottawa is 5-4-1 on the road and beat Colorado 4-3 in overtime on Thursday, the latest result in a season where the Senators keep finding a way to bank points. The Senators' weakness is easy to spot: a power play converting just 11.8 percent, which keeps their games closer than their even-strength play deserves.

Pittsburgh is 7-10-2, scoring 3.11 per game and allowing 3.47 for a -0.37 differential. Tommy Novak leads the Penguins with 7 goals, and Erik Karlsson has 16 assists and 19 points from the blue line. Pittsburgh is 4-3-1 at home and has split its last five, winning a shootout at San Jose on Tuesday after losses to Anaheim and Boston around a win at Los Angeles. The Penguins can score enough to stay in games. Their season keeps turning on the goals they give back.

Key Factors

The crease is the clearest edge in the game. Linus Ullmark is 8-1-0 for Ottawa at a 1.52 goals-against average and a .938 save percentage, the finest line any goaltender in this game owns, with Samuel Ersson at 3.11 and .885 behind him.

Pittsburgh's Arturs Silovs is at 3.35 and .873 and Sergei Murashov at 3.27 and .891, so the Penguins have no answer if Ullmark plays to his season. Ottawa allows 27.0 shots a night, and a defense that limits chances in front of a goaltender stopping pucks at that rate is a hard combination to beat at home or away.

Pittsburgh is missing a first-line piece. Bryan Rust is out tonight. He is on injured reserve with a lower body injury. Ryan Graves and Trevor van Riemsdyk are also out tonight on injured reserve, and Elmer Soderblom is out tonight on injured reserve.

Ottawa is short too: Nick Cousins is out tonight with an upper body injury, Warren Foegele is out tonight with a knee injury, Andre Burakovsky is out tonight on injured reserve, and William Eklund is out tonight with an ankle injury. Pittsburgh's case is its power play, converting 21.1 percent against an Ottawa kill of 75.0 percent, and Karlsson's creation from the back end. It is a real path. It still asks a team allowing 3.47 a night to outscore the side with the better record and the far better goaltender.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.