New Jersey Devils vs Washington Capitals Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

New Jersey beat Washington 5-2 on Thursday and the teams run it back two days later in Washington, with the season series tied at a win each. The Devils bring the better record and Jack Hughes at 27 points, and they also bring the weakest penalty kill on the Saturday slate, which is where this one gets tense.

The Matchup

New Jersey is 14-6-0, scoring 3.60 goals per game and allowing 2.85, a +0.75 differential. Jack Hughes leads the Devils with 10 goals, 17 assists and 27 points, and New Jersey has won four of its last five, including Thursday's 5-2 win over Washington in New Jersey. The Devils are 5-4-0 on the road, and the season series with the Capitals is a split: Washington won 4-2 in this building on October 17, and the Devils answered at home two days ago. Saturday settles the early edge in Washington.

Washington is 10-7-0, scoring 3.41 per game and allowing 3.41, a differential of exactly zero from a team that gives back everything it creates. Alex Tuch leads the Capitals with 11 goals, and Dylan Strome has 12 assists and 15 points. Washington is 7-4-0 at home and has lost three of its last five, including a 5-1 home loss to Minnesota. The Capitals are good enough to beat anyone at home on the right night. Their season says the right nights and the wrong ones arrive in no particular order.

Key Factors

New Jersey's flaw is the loudest number in the game, so it comes first. The Devils kill just 65.1 percent of their penalties, the weakest mark on the Saturday slate, against a Washington power play converting 19.6 percent.

If Saturday becomes a parade to the box, the Capitals can steal this game with the extra man, and New Jersey's discipline matters more here than in any other matchup on the slate. The Devils' power play converts 18.8 percent against a Washington kill of 77.2 percent, a much smaller edge the other way.

Everything else leans New Jersey. The Devils create 32.8 shots a night and allow just 25.0, the best shot suppression in this game by a distance, while Washington creates 27.2 and allows 27.8. In net, Connor Hellebuyck is at 1.97 and .916 for New Jersey with Jake Allen at 3.19 and .881 behind him, and Washington's Logan Thompson is at 3.17 and .888 with Charlie Lindgren at 3.08 and .881. Brett Pesce is day-to-day for New Jersey with an illness.

Keep an eye on whether Pesce plays before placing a bet. Seamus Casey, Johnathan Kovacevic and Anthony Mantha are all out tonight for the Devils, and Washington is without Rasmus Sandin and Vincent Desharnais, both out tonight. Washington's case is home ice, the October win here, and the Devils' kill. It is a credible case that still needs the game to be decided on special teams, because at even strength New Jersey is the better team by every measure this season carries.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.