Atlanta Hawks vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

New Orleans is 1-4 and still scoring 119.4 points per game, which tells you exactly where the Pelicans' losses live. Atlanta arrives on the second night of a back-to-back after a win in Cleveland, and Zion Williamson waiting in his own building is a hard assignment on tired legs.

The Matchup

Atlanta is 3-3 and scoring like a team that expects to be playing in May. The Hawks put up 119.2 points per game and allow 114.5, and the offense runs through Jalen Johnson, who leads the team at 8.5 assists and 9.3 rebounds per game. Nickeil Alexander-Walker leads Atlanta at 20.5 points per game, and with Onyeka Okongwu and Jock Landale inside, the Hawks can score from every spot on the floor. Last season's Hawks went 46-36, so a .500 start with this offense is closer to a floor than a ceiling.

New Orleans is 1-4, and the record hides how hard the Pelicans are to guard. They score 119.4 points per game, right with Atlanta, and allow 121.6, which is why the games keep getting away from them late. Zion Williamson leads New Orleans at 21.8 points per game, Dejounte Murray leads the team at 6.0 assists per game, and Derik Queen leads the Pelicans at 7.8 rebounds per game. Last season's Pelicans went 26-56, and the early signs say the offense has taken a step the defense has not.

The Pelicans are missing two rotation pieces tonight. Jordan Poole is out with an ankle sprain and is not expected back until November 2, and Yves Missi is out with a knee bruise, with a return expected around November 8. That leaves Murray as the only true creator in the backcourt and Queen carrying a heavy load at center.

Atlanta's report is lighter. Mouhamed Gueye is out with a foot fracture, and Henri Veesaar is out after knee surgery. DraftKings makes Atlanta a 3.5-point favorite at the Smoothie King Center, with a total of 238.5 and the Hawks at -155 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

Both teams played last night, and the similarity ends there. Atlanta won 114-111 in Cleveland and then got on a plane. New Orleans beat Sacramento 132-120 in this building and went home. On the second night of a back-to-back, the team that did not travel defends its own rims with fresher legs, and Williamson attacking a frontcourt that played last night is where that edge shows up first.

The total tells you how this game should look. At 238.5, it is the highest number on the board tonight, and both offenses have earned it. A shootout favors the home underdog for a simple reason. New Orleans does not have to slow Atlanta down to stay in the game, only to keep scoring with the Hawks, and Williamson at the rim is the most reliable scoring play either team owns.

The counterpoint is just as clear. Atlanta's defense, for all its leaks, is a class above the one New Orleans brings, and if Okongwu protects the rim well enough to make Williamson a passer, the Pelicans' secondary scorers have to win this game without Poole. That is a much harder ask.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.