Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Los Angeles kills 62.2 percent of its penalties, the weakest mark on the Saturday slate, and Pittsburgh has won once in seven road games. Two flawed teams meet in Los Angeles, and the only real question is which flaw costs more over sixty minutes.

The Matchup

Los Angeles is 5-7-2, scoring 3.07 goals per game and allowing 3.36, a -0.29 differential from a team still looking for its shape. The Kings are 2-4-0 at home, which is the uncomfortable part of their page, and their penalty kill has been a genuine liability all season. What Los Angeles does have is a slightly better differential than its visitor and a visitor in worse shape than the Kings are.

Pittsburgh is 5-9-2, scoring 3.13 per game and allowing 3.56 for a -0.44 differential. Erik Karlsson leads the Penguins with 16 points from the blue line and Nick Robertson has 7 goals. Pittsburgh is 1-6-1 on the road and 2-7-1 over its last ten, allowing 3.9 goals per game in that stretch. The Penguins' road games keep getting away from them in the second period, and Los Angeles is a patient enough home team to wait for that stretch.

Key Factors

The Kings' penalty kill is the worst number in this game, and Pittsburgh's power play is good enough to notice it. Los Angeles kills 62.2 percent, and the Penguins convert 17.8 percent with the extra man while killing 82.5 percent themselves. If this game turns into a special teams contest, Pittsburgh wins it. The Kings' counter is that Pittsburgh rarely gets to play that clean a road game: the Penguins allow 3.56 a night, and Arturs Silovs has a 3.26 goals-against average and a .876 save percentage.

Los Angeles has the steadier backup option in net, with Anton Forsberg at a 2.51 goals-against average and a .902 save percentage against Darcy Kuemper at 3.46 and .885. Bryan Rust is out for Pittsburgh with a lower body injury, and Ryan Graves is out with a lower body injury as well. Los Angeles lists Mats Zuccarello out with an upper body injury and Jakub Dvorak out with an upper body injury, with Kevin Fiala listed at a return date of November 7.

The Pittsburgh case is the kill, Karlsson, and a Kings home record that inspires nobody. It fails on the road split, which is the loudest number in the game: one win in eight road games, a defense allowing 3.56, and a team that has lost seven of its last ten. Los Angeles does not have to be good here. The Kings have to be ordinary at home against the worst road team on the slate.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.