Boston Bruins vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Boston brings the better record and the most complete star in this game, and Pittsburgh keeps leaking goals with its own star a question mark. The Bruins allow a full goal less per game than the Penguins, which makes the near pick'em price the quietest value on the slate.

The Matchup

Boston is 11-4-1, scoring 3.56 goals per game and allowing just 2.38, a +1.18 differential that is the second best on the Thursday slate. David Pastrnak leads the Bruins with 8 goals, 12 assists, and 20 points, and Boston has won three of its last five with the losses coming in tight games. The Bruins' season has a simple shape: score enough early, then defend the rest.

Pittsburgh is 5-8-2, scoring 3.20 per game and allowing 3.40, a -0.20 differential, and the Penguins have lost three straight. Erik Karlsson leads Pittsburgh with 13 assists and 16 points from the blue line, which tells its own story about where the Penguins' offense has to come from. Evgeni Malkin, their top goal scorer with 6, is day-to-day with a lower body injury.

Boston also has the shorter injury list by a distance. Matthew Poitras is day-to-day for the Bruins, and that is the whole report.

Key Factors

Keep an eye on whether Malkin plays before placing a bet, because Pittsburgh's forward group thins quickly without him. Bryan Rust is on injured reserve, Ryan Graves and Trevor van Riemsdyk are on injured reserve on defense, and a day-to-day Malkin on top of that leaves Karlsson carrying the creation load against a team allowing 2.38 per game.

The crease comparison is just as plain. Jeremy Swayman has a 2.31 goals-against average and a .913 save percentage for Boston. Arturs Silovs sits at 2.98 and .888 for Pittsburgh. Special teams are the Penguins' best counter, with a kill at 82.1 percent against a Boston power play converting 20.0 percent, while Boston's kill at 76.4 percent faces a Pittsburgh power play at 18.2 percent.

The favorite case, such as it is at -112, belongs to Pittsburgh on home ice. It fails on the goals-against column, the injury report, and the goaltending, three separate problems that all have to break the Penguins' way on the same night.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.