Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Portland is winning without its starting backcourt and Phoenix is losing with most of its scorers healthy. One of those facts is about to be tested in the desert.

The Matchup

Portland is 5-1, scores 120.2 points per game, and allows 109.3. The Trail Blazers have been one of the early surprises of the season, with Deni Avdija playing the best basketball of his career, Scoot Henderson and Jrue Holiday sharing the backcourt, and Donovan Clingan anchoring the paint. Damian Lillard gives them a closer off the bench in his second stint with the team. Phoenix is 1-4, scores 112.2, and allows 122.8, a defensive number that undermines everything Devin Booker and Jalen Green do at the other end.

Portland's report looks worse than its results. Ja Morant is out, with a return expected around December 1, and Shaedon Sharpe is out after knee surgery until around March 2. Both absences are long-term, and this 5-1 start was built largely without them, which is the point. The team that takes the floor in Phoenix is the team that has been winning. Phoenix is missing Mark Williams, out after shoulder surgery until around February 3, and his absence has left the Suns small inside all season.

DraftKings makes Portland a 3.5-point road favorite at Mortgage Matchup Center, with a total of 227.5, and the Trail Blazers at -155 on the moneyline. A road favorite in this spot is the market admitting which team has been better.

Key Factors

Phoenix's defense decides this game if anything does. The Suns allow 122.8 points per game, cannot protect the rim without Williams, and have to choose between helping on Henderson's drives and staying home on Portland's shooters. Portland has scored on better defenses than this one all season, and Avdija's size on the wing is a matchup Phoenix has no clean answer for.

Booker is the reason Phoenix is never dead in a home game. He can score 35 on a normal night's usage, Green gives him a second creator, and Portland's perimeter defense, while improved, still gives up big nights to elite guards. If Booker and Green both get going, the Suns can win a shootout, because Portland's own defense is good rather than great.

The difference is the floor. Portland's worst game this season was still competitive, built on depth and Clingan's rim protection. Phoenix's worst games have been blowouts where the defense collapsed entirely. In a matchup between a steady road team and a volatile home team, the steady team is the moneyline play at a fair price.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.