Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Toronto scores with anyone in the league right now, and Denver has not defended like Denver yet. The altitude helps the home team. The matchup helps the visitor.

The Matchup

Toronto is 4-3, scores 119.1 points per game, and allows 111.4. Scottie Barnes does a little of everything for the Raptors, RJ Barrett scores in transition, and Immanuel Quickley pushes the pace.

Denver is 3-3, scores 113.3, and allows 115.7, a defensive number well off what the Nuggets managed last season, when they outscored teams by 5.2 points per game. Nikola Jokic is still the best offensive player in the league, Jamal Murray is his partner, and DeMar DeRozan gives Denver a third scorer who lives in the midrange.

Toronto's report carries a star. Kawhi Leonard is out with knee inflammation, with a return expected around November 23. Jakob Poeltl is day-to-day with shoulder inflammation, listed with a November 4 return date. Keep an eye on whether Poeltl plays before placing a bet, because he is Toronto's only natural matchup for Jokic, and the Raptors' whole defensive plan changes without him. Denver's Cameron Johnson is day-to-day, and Julian Strawther and Spencer Jones are out.

DraftKings makes Denver a 4.5-point home favorite at Ball Arena, with a total of 231.5. The altitude and Jokic explain the favorite. Toronto's form explains why the number is not bigger.

Key Factors

Denver's defense is the soft spot in its own profile. The Nuggets allowed 115.7 points per game through six games, and Toronto's offense, at 119.1, is built to attack a defense that cannot stay in front of its first action. Barnes and Barrett both score going downhill, and a defense that helps late gives Quickley and the Raptors' shooters clean catch-and-shoot chances.

Jokic is the counterweight, and he is a heavy one. Without Poeltl, Toronto has to guard him with Barnes and Trayce Jackson-Davis and a lot of help, and Jokic picks help defenses apart as patiently as anyone who has played the game. Denver should score plenty. The pick does not require stopping Jokic. It requires Toronto to score enough that Jokic's night wins the game by a little instead of a lot.

Last season matters here as context. Denver outscored teams by 5.2 points per game over a full season, and Toronto by 2.8, so the Nuggets' better team is probably still in there. This season's six Denver games have not shown it yet, and the Raptors are being priced as if they have.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.