Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Golden State won on Sunday without its two stars, and both are listed to return on Monday night. Phoenix arrives rested but with a defense that has leaked points from the opening week, a bad combination in a building where the home team's role players just found their rhythm.

The Matchup

Golden State is 4-3, scoring 117.7 points per game and allowing 114.9, a year after a 37-45 season. The Warriors' Sunday was the most encouraging part of their start: Stephen Curry and Draymond Green both sat out for rest, and Golden State still beat the Clippers 124-112 at home, with Yaxel Lendeborg scoring 37 points, De'Anthony Melton adding 21 and Brandin Podziemski 17. Curry and Green are both listed with a return date of November 2.

Phoenix is 1-3 and allowing 124.5 points per game, a defensive number that follows the Suns everywhere. Devin Booker is still a first-rate scorer and Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks give Phoenix real perimeter talent, and the Suns went 45-37 last season, but the stops have not arrived yet this year. Mark Williams is out after left shoulder surgery and is not expected back until February, which leaves the middle thin behind him.

DraftKings makes Golden State a 4.5-point home favorite at Chase Center, with the Warriors at -180 on the moneyline and a total of 227.5.

Key Factors

Everything about this pick runs through availability, so it gets said plainly. Curry is listed out for rest with a return date of November 2, and Green carries the same listing after both sat out on Sunday. Keep an eye on whether Curry and Green play before placing a bet. If both go, Golden State gets its two most important players back fresh while the rest of the rotation plays the second night of a back-to-back, which is close to the best version of a back-to-back a team can draw.

Golden State is thinner elsewhere. Kristaps Porzingis is out with an illness until December and Moses Moody is out after knee surgery, also until December, so the Warriors' bench minutes lean on the same young players who carried Sunday. They carried it well, which matters against a Phoenix team that has not guarded its own end at any point this season.

Phoenix's path is Booker. If he turns this into a duel and Phoenix's shooters finally travel, the Suns can win this game outright, rested against a team that played last night. That is a real path. It still asks a defense that has leaked points from the opening week to survive a building where the home team's confidence is suddenly everywhere.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.