Toledo Rockets vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Michigan State was brilliant in its opener, but Toledo just grabbed 50 rebounds on the road and lost by a point. Rebounding underdogs are the ones who hang around in buildings like this.

The Matchup

Toledo visits No. 6 Michigan State on Thursday night at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, with Michigan State a 26.5-point favorite, a total of 152.5, on Peacock. Michigan State finished 27-8 last season, scoring 77.0 points a game and allowing 68.4. Toledo finished 19-15, scoring 81.1 and allowing 76.3. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Michigan State's opener was close to flawless. The Spartans beat Quinnipiac 96-59, shooting 58 percent, scoring 50 points in the paint and 36 in transition, with eight players scoring between 9 and 13 points. Jeremy Fears Jr. directed it with 13 points and 11 assists, Coen Carr added 12 points with 8 rebounds, and Anton Bonke grabbed 13 rebounds in 20 minutes.

Toledo's opener was a one-point road loss, 71-70 at Arkansas State, and the Rockets' best work was on the glass. Jaylan Ouwinga had 16 points and 14 rebounds, Angel Montas Jr. came off the bench for 16 points and 10 rebounds, and Mynor Strong scored 18. Toledo outrebounded Arkansas State 50-46 and lost anyway, because it shot 22 percent from three and turned the ball over 16 times.

Key Factors

This is a rebounding collision. Toledo's frontcourt just produced two double-doubles on the road, and Michigan State just won its glass 46-27 with Bonke dominating in short minutes. Whichever team loses that fight loses its cover case: Toledo's extra possessions are its only route to staying in range, and Michigan State's second chances are how a 20-point game becomes a 30-point game.

Creation separates the two openers. Fears handed out 11 of Michigan State's 22 assists, the Spartans shot 58 percent as a team, and their bench produced 45 points. Toledo's creation ran through Sean Jones, who had 9 assists, but Strong's 3-of-12 shooting from three is the swing line: Toledo needs its volume shooter to be merely ordinary, not cold, to keep pace.

The counterpoint is that Michigan State at home might just be this good. The Spartans led Quinnipiac for nearly the entire game, their largest lead was 40, and Toledo's bench beyond Montas gave almost nothing. If Michigan State's pressure turns Toledo's 16 turnovers into another transition feast, the cover is gone by the under-12 timeout. The bet is that Toledo's glass work and scoring balance keep the margin in the late teens or low twenties.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.