Baylor Bears vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 3

No. 7 Texas is scoring 100.0 points a game on 58 percent shooting, and Baylor brings 14.0 steals a game into a neutral-site meeting in San Antonio.

The Matchup

Baylor meets Texas on Sunday at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, on ESPN, a neutral floor with Texas favored by 6.5 points, a total of 160.5, and the Longhorns priced at -225 on the moneyline. Texas is 3-0, ranked No. 7 in the AP Top 25, and plays out of the Southeastern Conference. Baylor is also 3-0, out of the Big 12 Conference, in a meeting of old rivals on a floor that sits far closer to Austin than to Waco.

Texas has been overwhelming early. The Longhorns score 100.0 points a game and allow 57.0, shooting 58 percent from the field and 42 percent from three.

Baylor scores 95.3 a game and allows 59.7, so both defenses have been excellent and both offenses have feasted. Last season Texas went 21-15 while scoring 82.8 and allowing 76.2, and Baylor went 17-17 while scoring 81.7 and allowing 76.4, which is a reminder that neither program defended anywhere near this level a year ago, and the early numbers on both sides come with that warning attached.

Matas Vokietaitis leads Texas at 21.3 points and 7.3 rebounds a game, with Austin Goosby at 4.3 assists a game. Kayden Mingo leads Baylor at 15.0 points a game, Isaac Williams IV adds 5.0 assists a game, and Dylan Mingo pulls down 5.7 rebounds a game. Vokietaitis, Goosby, and both Mingos all carry no injury designations, and Williams carries none either.

Key Factors

Baylor's pressure is the story. The Bears record 14.0 steals a game, by far the most disruptive number in this matchup, and Texas, for all its polish, still has to bring the ball up against a fresh wave of guards for forty minutes. Every live-ball turnover is worth double here: it takes away a Texas possession in a game where the Longhorns score at will, and it gives Baylor the run-outs its half-court offense needs.

Texas shooting 58 percent from the field is the other side of the coin. No team shoots that number for long, and Baylor's defense, allowing 59.7 points a game with real length on the perimeter, is the first one built to make Texas work for its looks. Baylor also rebounds slightly better, 43.3 a game to 42.0, which keeps second chances from quietly widening the gap.

Texas can still run away with this, and the path is clear. Vokietaitis at 21.3 points a game is a matchup problem Baylor has no clean answer for, the San Antonio crowd will sound like a home game, and if the Longhorns handle the pressure early, their shot-making can turn a close game into a comfortable one in a four-minute burst. Baylor also shoots just 27 percent from three this season, so a cold night from deep leaves the Bears chasing without their best comeback tool.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.