Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Rangers Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Philadelphia scores less than anyone on the slate, and Madison Square Garden is a poor place to go looking for goals. The Rangers have a crease problem of their own with their starter on injured reserve, but they also own the stingiest penalty kill in this game, waiting for a Flyers power play that rarely gets going.

The Matchup

The Rangers are 8-7-1, scoring 3.00 goals per game and allowing 2.94 for a +0.06 differential, and they are 7-2-0 at home. Adam Fox runs the offense from the blue line with 17 assists and 19 points, and Alexis Lafreniere has 9 goals. The Rangers lost four straight before winning their last game, so the home record and the recent form disagree, and the home record has the better numbers behind it.

Philadelphia is 4-9-4, scoring a slate-low 2.18 goals per game and allowing 3.35, a -1.17 differential. Matvei Michkov has 10 goals and Trevor Zegras has 10 assists and 14 points, and beyond those two the Flyers struggle to finish anything. Philadelphia has won once in its last five, and scoring two is a good night.

Neither team arrives hot. One of them arrives unable to score, and that is the fact the night turns on.

Key Factors

The Rangers' crease is the honest worry. Igor Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and Joonas Korpisalo is on injured reserve too. The mitigating fact is Dylan Garand, who has carried the heavier workload for the Rangers at a 2.57 goals-against average and a .905 save percentage. Dan Vladar starts opposite at 3.21 and .883 for Philadelphia. A backup matchup usually helps the underdog. It helps less when the underdog scores 2.18 a night.

Special teams close the Flyers' other door. The Rangers kill 90.4 percent of their penalties, the best mark in this game, against a Philadelphia power play converting 16.7 percent. The Flyers kill 81.0 percent against a Rangers power play at 18.6 percent, a fairer fight, but Philadelphia has to earn its power plays with an attack that does not sustain pressure.

The underdog case is Garand having an ordinary backup's bad night while Michkov finishes twice. It fails on volume: the Flyers do not create enough chances for that math to work at the Garden.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.