Dallas Stars vs Columbus Blue Jackets Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Dallas allows the fewest goals on the slate and kills ninety percent of its penalties, and Columbus keeps asking a young goaltender to survive nights his team gives back at the other end. The Stars' one real worry travels with them, because their best defenseman is a game-time question.

The Matchup

Dallas is 9-5-1, scoring 2.87 goals per game and allowing a slate-low 2.33, a +0.54 differential built on structure rather than shootouts. Mikko Rantanen leads the Stars with 18 points, and Jason Robertson has 8 goals and 10 assists. Dallas does not chase games. The Stars set a pace, defend it, and let their power play collect the difference.

Columbus is 6-7-0, scoring 2.69 per game and allowing 3.15 for a -0.46 differential. Kent Johnson leads the Blue Jackets with 7 goals and 13 points, and Zach Werenski has 12 assists from the blue line. Columbus has one clean advantage in this game, and it is a real one: the Blue Jackets' injury report is empty, the only clean report on the Thursday slate.

Dallas has won three of its last five, Columbus three of its last five, and the records are close enough that the details underneath them have to do the separating.

Key Factors

Jake Oettinger is the largest of those details. He has a 1.91 goals-against average and a .909 save percentage for Dallas, with three shutouts, against Jet Greaves at 3.11 and .883 for Columbus. A Columbus team scoring 2.69 per game has to solve the slate's stingiest goaltender, and its power play, converting 17.1 percent, runs into a Dallas kill at 90.0 percent. The other direction is worse for the hosts: Dallas converts 23.5 percent on the power play against a Columbus kill of 72.5 percent.

The Stars' worry is Miro Heiskanen, who is day-to-day with an upper body injury. Keep an eye on whether Heiskanen plays before placing a bet, because he plays the hardest minutes on the Dallas blue line. Matt Duchene is on injured reserve, which costs the Stars a forward, but the defensive structure that drives this pick does not rest on one forward. The underdog case is Columbus's health, Werenski's minutes, and home ice. It fails because the Blue Jackets still have to score on Oettinger, and almost nobody has.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.