Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76ers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Detroit and Philadelphia are the East's last two unbeaten teams, and only one of them is whole. Joel Embiid sits tonight, held out on the second night of a back-to-back, and everything the 76ers run through him has to be run through somebody else. Detroit has holes of its own. Jalen Duren is out, and Ausar Thompson, the defender the Pistons would put on Tyrese Maxey, sprained his ankle in Miami on Friday and sat out this morning's shootaround. Thompson is questionable to play tonight. Which absence bends the other team further is the whole game.

The Matchup

The game turned on Saturday night. Embiid carried Philadelphia past Milwaukee with 28 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists, and that workload is why he sits tonight. The 76ers lose the player their entire half-court offense is built around. Every set they run assumes the defense is tilted toward him at the elbow. Remove the tilt and Detroit guards Philadelphia's scorers straight up, with help free to stay in front of drives instead of collapsing toward the paint.

What replaces him is a frontcourt of Adem Bona and Dean Wade. Bona is active and will contest shots in stretches. He does not make a defense move. Wade is a floor spacer being asked to hold down frontcourt minutes, and neither one bends Detroit's coverage toward the rim. Philadelphia can still score. It has to score the hard way, against a set defense, without the player who produced its easiest points.

Key Factors

Detroit's offense is the steadier thing in this game. The Pistons have scored 124.5 points per game through two wins, and Cunningham has run it with eight assists in each game, under control and on schedule. Tonight the last line of Philadelphia's defense is Bona and Wade instead of Embiid. The reads come a beat quicker, finishes at the rim meet less length, and Detroit's shooters spot up against a defense that cannot cheat toward the paint.

The Pistons pay for Duren's absence too. He strained his hamstring in Miami on Friday and is out for an extended stretch, and Paul Reed is expected to start in his place. Reed runs the floor and rebounds hard. He is not the finisher above the rim that Duren is, and he will not clear the defensive glass the same way.

On a normal night that costs Detroit second chances at both ends. This is not a normal night. The player who would have turned Reed's minutes into a layup line is in street clothes, and Bona does not punish a backup center the way Embiid would have.

The honest argument the other way is Thompson's ankle. He sprained his right ankle in the same Miami game and sat out this morning's shootaround, and he is questionable to play tonight. Keep an eye on whether Thompson plays before placing a bet. He is the exact defender Detroit built for this matchup.

Maxey scored 28 in the opener and 26 on Saturday, and his game starts with a first step that turns a set defense into a chase. If Thompson cannot go, or goes at half speed, Maxey attacks the first line with Reed behind it instead of Duren, and that is a layup drill waiting to happen. James rested on Saturday and Brown does not need the offense drawn for him. A one-possession home win for Philadelphia is easy to picture.

Everything else leans one way. Philadelphia played last night. Detroit played Friday and rested Saturday, and gets to be the deeper and fresher team in the fourth quarter. Detroit does not need a hot shooting night to win this game. It needs its normal one, against a smaller and more tired version of the 76ers.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.