Vegas Golden Knights vs Detroit Red Wings Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Detroit keeps finding ways to hang around games it gets outplayed in, and Vegas keeps bringing the deeper scoresheet. The Red Wings are missing their captain and their starting goaltender is a question mark, which is a hard way to host the team whose top center already has 22 points.

The Matchup

Vegas is 10-5-2, scoring 3.35 goals per game and allowing 2.82, a +0.53 differential that travels well because it does not depend on one line. Jack Eichel leads the Golden Knights with 22 points, Mitch Marner has 16 assists, and Mark Stone has 10 goals. When one of them has a quiet night, the other two rarely do.

Detroit is 7-6-3 and underwater, scoring 2.88 per game and allowing 3.00 for a -0.12 differential. Alex DeBrincat leads the Red Wings with 16 points, Lucas Raymond has 10 assists, and Viktor Arvidsson has 8 goals. The pieces are fine. The problem is who is missing: Dylan Larkin is on injured reserve, and Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton are on injured reserve with him, which strips Detroit's center depth behind its top line.

Detroit has split its last five, and Vegas has been just as uneven, losing three of five. Form alone does not separate them. The rosters do, and so does the crease.

Key Factors

Goaltending is where this game tilts. John Gibson is day-to-day with a lower body injury for Detroit, and his numbers were already the weakest in this matchup at a 3.46 goals-against average and a .860 save percentage. Keep an eye on whether Gibson plays before placing a bet. Behind him, Daniil Tarasov has been sharp in a small run of games, but Vegas splits its net between Carter Hart at 2.65 and .893 and Adin Hill at 2.73 and .895, two steady options against a Detroit attack missing its captain.

Special teams widen the gap. Vegas converts 29.4 percent on the power play, and Detroit kills only 70.0 percent of its penalties, so every Red Wings penalty is a genuine scoring chance for the visitors. Detroit's own power play converts 23.6 percent against a Vegas kill of 73.9 percent, which keeps the Red Wings in it if the calls pile up the other way. The underdog case is that home game plus DeBrincat's finishing. It fails because Detroit has to defend more, with less, in front of a compromised crease.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.