St. Louis Blues vs New Jersey Devils Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Jack Hughes has a hand in almost everything New Jersey does, and St. Louis brings a blue line held together with spare parts. The Blues score exactly as many goals as they allow, which is a fragile way to visit a team that has won seven of nine on home ice.

The Matchup

New Jersey is 10-5-0, scoring 3.40 goals per game and allowing 2.87 for a +0.53 differential, and the Devils are 7-2-0 at home. Jack Hughes leads New Jersey in everything that matters here, with 8 goals, 11 assists, and 19 points. When Hughes is on the ice, the Devils tilt the rink. When he sits, they mostly hold it.

St. Louis is 7-7-1 with a perfectly even profile, scoring 3.00 per game and allowing 3.00, a 0.00 differential that matches the Blues' split results. Dylan Holloway leads St. Louis with 9 assists and 12 points, and Jimmy Snuggerud has 8 goals. The Blues are competitive most nights and decisive on few of them, and they have won just two of their last five.

The difference in this game is standing in the two medical reports. New Jersey lists only Seamus Casey on injured reserve. St. Louis has four defensemen hurt, which is where the night gets hard.

Key Factors

The Blues' blue line is the story. Colton Parayko is day-to-day with an upper body injury. Keep an eye on whether Parayko plays before placing a bet, because he is the matchup defender St. Louis would throw at Hughes. Logan Mailloux, Torey Krug, Dillon Dube, and Tyler Tucker are all on injured reserve, so the Blues are defending a top-ten offense with their depth chart stretched thin.

St. Louis does own the two best counters in this game, and both are real. Joel Hofer has a 2.39 goals-against average and a .918 save percentage, far better than Jake Allen's 3.11 and .887 for New Jersey, and the Blues kill 84.6 percent of their penalties against a Devils power play converting 19.1 percent.

New Jersey's own kill, at 67.6 percent, is the weakest unit in this game, and the Blues' power play converts 20.5 percent. The underdog case is Hofer plus the special teams edge. It fails if Hughes gets his shifts against a patched-together pairing at even strength, where most of this game will be played and where New Jersey's depth keeps arriving.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.