Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Islanders Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Carolina owns the best goal differential on the Thursday slate and a goaltender who has lost once all season. The Islanders counter with a strong crease of their own and a lineup missing its most gifted playmaker, which narrows their path to one very specific kind of game.

The Matchup

Carolina is 12-3-2 with the Thursday slate's best numbers, scoring 3.76 goals per game and allowing just 2.29, a +1.47 differential. Sebastian Aho leads the Hurricanes with 21 points, Logan Stankoven has 10 goals, and Jackson Blake has 13 assists. Carolina has won four of its last five, and the loss column stays small because the Hurricanes rarely give a game away at even strength.

The Islanders are 7-5-2, scoring 2.79 per game and allowing 2.71 for a +0.08 differential. Bo Horvat leads the Islanders with 7 goals and 14 points, and rookie Matthew Schaefer has 10 assists from the blue line. What the Islanders do not have is Mathew Barzal, who is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and his absence removes the one Islanders forward who creates chances on his own against a defense like this.

The Islanders have also lost three of their last five, and the two wins did not change the basic shape of their season: defend well, score just enough, and hope the goaltender finishes the job.

Key Factors

Both goaltenders are playing well enough to make this a low-event game, which suits the team that defends better in front of its net. Pyotr Kochetkov has a 1.64 goals-against average and a .922 save percentage for Carolina, with a 10-1 record in his starts. Ilya Sorokin answers at 2.41 and .911 for the Islanders. Sorokin can absolutely steal this game. He has to, because the Islanders' path without Barzal runs through him.

The rest of the Islanders' injury list makes the ask bigger. Ryan Pulock is out with an upper body injury and Alexander Romanov is on injured reserve, so the defense in front of Sorokin is patched too. Carolina lists Taylor Hall day-to-day with an upper body injury, and Jordan Staal on injured reserve. Keep an eye on whether Hall plays before placing a bet.

Special teams lean Carolina as well, with a power play converting 23.3 percent and a kill at 83.9 percent, against an Islanders power play at 15.9 percent. The Islanders' kill, at 86.0 percent, is their best counter. The underdog case is Sorokin plus that kill in a 2-1 game. It fails because Carolina creates that game on purpose, every night, and scores more inside it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.