Minnesota Wild vs Boston Bruins Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Boston has won eight of ten at TD Garden and carries the slightly better goal differential into Saturday, and Minnesota arrives without its starting goaltender and a top-pair defenseman. Two of the league's best early records meet in a game the market prices one way and the season numbers price the other.

The Matchup

Boston is 13-5-1, scoring 3.63 goals per game and allowing 2.42, a +1.21 differential that edges Minnesota's as the best in this game. The Bruins are 8-2-0 at TD Garden, and David Pastrnak drives everything, with 8 goals, 16 assists and 24 points. Boston has won four of its last five, and the one loss, 5-2 to Montreal on Thursday, came against a Canadiens team in its own hot run. At home, the Bruins have been the steadier side all season.

Minnesota is 14-3-4, scoring 3.33 per game and allowing 2.19, the lowest goals-against mark on the Saturday slate, for a +1.14 differential. Kirill Kaprizov leads the Wild with 17 goals and 35 points, and Quinn Hughes has 22 assists from the blue line. Minnesota is 9-3-2 on the road and has won four of its last five.

The Wild also won the first meeting, 4-1 in Boston on October 3, and that result is the honest warning on this pick. What has changed since October is Minnesota's availability, and Saturday's version of the Wild is missing pieces the October version had.

Key Factors

Minnesota's absences sit exactly where Boston attacks. Filip Gustavsson is out tonight. He is on long-term injured reserve with a hip injury, so the Wild crease belongs to Jesper Wallstedt and Calvin Pickard.

Wallstedt has been superb, at a 1.94 goals-against average and a .925 save percentage, and Pickard is at 3.60 and .855 behind him, so Minnesota needs Wallstedt's best on the road. Brock Faber is out tonight.

He is on injured reserve, and his absence thins a blue line that has to contain Pastrnak for a full night. Joel Eriksson Ek is day-to-day with an upper body injury. Keep an eye on whether Eriksson Ek plays before placing a bet. Boston lists James Hagens on injured reserve with a back injury.

The goaltending on Boston's side is settled. Jeremy Swayman is at 2.43 and .913, and Michael DiPietro is at 2.17 and .925, so the Bruins have two in-form options at home. Special teams are close to even: Minnesota converts 27.4 percent on the power play against a Boston kill of 78.5 percent, and Boston converts 18.0 percent against a Minnesota kill of 79.7 percent.

The Minnesota case is real: the league's stingiest defense, Kaprizov in full flight, a 9-3-2 road record, and a 4-1 win in this building already this season. It fails on the night's circumstances, a road favorite missing its starting goaltender and a top defenseman, against a home team that has lost twice in ten games in its own building and owns the better differential of the two.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.